Bollinger Bands Trading Strategy: Day Trading Tips The ...

A Physicist's Bitcoin Trading Strategy. No leverage, no going short, just spot trading. Total cumulative outperformance 2011-2020: 13,000,000%.

https://www.tradingview.com/script/4J5psNDo-A-Physicist-s-Bitcoin-Trading-Strategy/
3. Backtest Results
Backtest results demonstrate significant outperformance over buy-and-hold . The default parameters of the strategy/indicator have been set by the author to achieve maximum (or, close to maximum) outperformance on backtests executed on the BTCUSD ( Bitcoin ) chart. However, significant outperformance over buy-and-hold is still easily achievable using non-default parameters. Basically, as long as the parameters are set to adequately capture the full character of the market, significant outperformance on backtests is achievable and is quite easy. In fact, after some experimentation, it seems as if underperformance hardly achievable and requires deliberately setting the parameters illogically (e.g. setting one parameter of the slow indicator faster than the fast indicator). In the interest of providing a quality product to the user, suggestions and guidelines for parameter settings are provided in section (6). Finally, some metrics of the strategy's outperformance on the BTCUSD chart are listed below, both for the default (optimal) parameters as well as for a random sample of parameter settings that adhere to the guidelines set forth in section (6).
Using the default parameters, relative to buy-and-hold strategy, backtested from August 2011 to August 2020,
Using the default parameters, relative to buy-and-hold strategy, during specific periods,
Using a random sample (n=20) of combinations of parameter settings that adhere to the guidelines outlined in section (6), relative to buy-and-hold strategy, backtested from August 2011 to August 2020,
EDIT (because apparently not everybody bothers to read the strategy's description):
7. General Remarks About the Indicator
Other than some exponential moving averages, no traditional technical indicators or technical analysis tools are employed in this strategy. No MACD , no RSI , no CMF , no Bollinger bands , parabolic SARs, Ichimoku clouds , hoosawatsits, XYZs, ABCs, whatarethese. No tea leaves can be found in this strategy, only mathematics. It is in the nature of the underlying math formula, from which the indicator is produced, to quickly identify trend changes.
8. Remarks About Expectations of Future Results and About Backtesting
8.1. In General As it's been stated in many prospectuses and marketing literature, "past performance is no guarantee of future results." Backtest results are retrospective, and hindsight is 20/20. Therefore, no guarantee can, nor should, be expressed by me or anybody else who is selling a financial product (unless you have a money printer, like the Federal Reserve does).
8.2. Regarding This Strategy No guarantee of future results using this strategy is expressed by the author, not now nor at any time in the future.
With that written, the author is free to express his own expectations and opinions based on his intimate knowledge of how the indicator works, and the author will take that liberty by writing the following: As described in section (7), this trading strategy does not include any traditional technical indicators or TA tools (other than smoothing EMAs). Instead, this strategy is based on a principle that does not change, it employs a complex indicator that is based on a math formula that does not change, and it places trades based on five simple rules that do not change. And, as described in section (2.1), the indicator is designed to capture the full character of the market, from a macro/global scope down to a micro/local scope. Additionally, as described in section (3), outperformance of the market for which this strategy was intended during backtesting does not depend on luckily setting the parameters "just right." In fact, all random combinations of parameter settings that followed the guidelines outperformed the intended market in backtests. Additionally, no parameters are included within the underlying math formula from which the indicator is produced; it is not as if the formula contains a "5" and future outperformance would depend on that "5" being a "6" instead. And, again as described, it is in the nature of the formula to quickly identify trend changes. Therefore, it is the opinion of the author that the outperformance of this strategy in backtesting is directly attributable to the fundamental nature of the math formula from which the indicator is produced. As such, it is also the opinion of the author that continued outperformance by using this strategy, applied to the crypto ( Bitcoin ) market, is likely, given that the parameter settings are set reasonably and in accordance with the guidelines. The author does not, however, expect future outperformance of this strategy to match or exceed the outperformance observed in backtests using the default parameters, i.e. it probably won't outperform by anything close to 13,000,000% during the next 9 years.
Additionally, based on the rolling 1-month outperformance data listed in section (3), expectations of short-term outperformance should be kept low; the median 1-month outperformance was -2%, so it's basically a 50/50 chance that any significant outperformance is seen in any given month. The true strength of this strategy is to be out of the market during large, sharp declines and capitalizing on the opportunities presented at the bottom of those declines by buying the dip. Given that such price action does not happen every month, outperformance in the initial months of use is approximately as likely as underperformance.
submitted by anon2414691 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Intraday Mean Reversion

Interesting results from the following strategy for Bitcoin and Eth. I took inspiration for this strategy from Earnie Chan's book: Winning Strategies and their Rationale chapter 6.
I decided to modify the "correlation between different time-frames" strategy Mr. Chan wrote about, to condition on an event occurring. The event in question is the asset making a daily high/low whilst being in an upwards/downwards trend for a longer period of time.

As per my last few posts all the code/data to recreate the following can be found (link removed)
So on to the details. This strategy basically attempts to take advantage of short term deviations from a longer term trend, hence the mean reversion. The trend is defined as follows:
Upwards trend : last close is up at least 3% from a month ago (you can change this in the code)
Downwards trend: last close is down at least 3% from a month ago
So now we have the trends defined, we will enter positions as follows:
Long
If the last close price <= 24 hour minimum , and market is on an upwards trend (which is described above).
Short
If the last close price >= 24 hour minimum, and market is on a downwards trend.

No trade otherwise.

The image below is an attempt to visualize the entry conditions. I say attempt as it is difficult to get it the way I would like due to the way the strategy is defined. But notice that in a longer term downwards trend, we are only interested in shorting 24 hour highs. And we are only interested in long positions in an upwards trending market. Again the charts below don't show the longer term trend at all, but I hope you get the idea.
https://preview.redd.it/jcb12ehwlbp51.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=7bc6900c8776c5c3af474cb356fc9e6748d10f90
Only after finishing researching this strategy and implementing the backtests below, did I realize the similarity to a Bollinger bands strategy (with some sort of trend filter). However, I feel this is a better option as it produces far fewer signals, and I feel better represents extreme points from which we can expect mean reversion.
One more fun discovery before we move on to the actual trading results:
Although I only ran a few brief tests, it seems the volatility directly after a 24 hour high/low is much higher than it otherwise is. (Tested for the 180 & 300 minutes and compared to general 180 / 300 min vol). Could be due to sample size I guess. Thoughts??

So on to the trading results. Both Strategies have a maximum holding time of 300 minutes after conditions are satisfied. With a 2% target and stop loss from entry. Fees have not been included.
Bitcoin
Approx 517 trades over 2 years. Pretty nice right?
https://preview.redd.it/c9q4r060obp51.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c5bfb3bdfeea670016f371cf7f663be720ab944
So here is what's wrong with the chart above and backtests in general in my opinion. I have assumed in the curve above, that I can get the last close/first open of the bar directly proceeding the signal. Let's have a look at the results if I take the exact same curve and shift the signal to the next close:

https://preview.redd.it/4nbc7gjkobp51.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=63064d4aac4c634a4f7aa15668cbdb64f219a875
That's an incredible difference for just one minute. If you think that's extreme wait til you see the results for Eth.

Eth
Approx 566 trades over slightly less than 2 years.
I should probably point out here that since Eth is more volatile that BTC it may be prudent to use a highelower threshold for our conditions for bull/bear trend.

So that looks pretty neat, all we need to do now is determine which Caribbean Island to retire to. Bahamas?
https://preview.redd.it/vgv96vc3pbp51.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=e970a04e0279439073b5daa3fbb4dcf70d1cfbe1
So looking at the curve below with just one minute difference of entry, we see that the overall results are around 60-70% different overall. Pretty shocking when you consider it is only 1 minute difference. Possibly due to the higher volatility I observed at 24 hour high/low points.

https://preview.redd.it/mtraanztpbp51.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=5d622464799fcedd5f974ee06145268bc29523a8
I should mention that for changing the threshold and holding times often the Next Close curves look significantly better. Not that this is something to be happy about, since it just means an increase in variance, regarding the actual efficacy of the trading rule.

Again I should note that you shouldn't take what I said about volatility depending on level too seriously, as I didn't look too deeply into it.
I found the difference in price between different entries quite fascinating. The way I would usually deal with this is by drawing uniformly from the [low,high] of the next bar and repeating for a large number of trials. Interested in how you guys would handle this? Barring using tick data, which although optimal is hard to get hold of high quality versions.

Hope some of you may have found this interesting, check out the code (link removed) and feedback is welcome!
John
submitted by johncodearmo to algotrading [link] [comments]

Why may bitcoin get down to $9,700 and when will it grow to $100,000?

Why may bitcoin get down to $9,700 and when will it grow to $100,000?

https://preview.redd.it/in5g0fwg0fi51.jpg?width=740&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=75a3feba35903aa276d2fec4e1da97642ee26473

Opinion: the bitcoin price can fall to $9,700

Amsterdam stock exchange analyst Michaël van de Poppe shared his opinion about the nearest prospects of bitcoin.
He noted that although the price had managed to renew the year’s high, it had failed to settle higher than $12,000. It opens a way to moving further downwards and the final target of this move is the level of $9,700. At this point, the bitcoin futures chart on the CME exchange showed an untraded range: on July 24, Friday the price closed at the level of $9,615 while on Monday trading started at $9,925.
The price gap between these levels has not been closed so far — statistically, the price seeks to return to the empty zone in most cases. The analyst points out that bearish signals prevail at the moment, but buyers can still maintain the upward trend. To do it, they need to maintain the level of $11,400.

The analyst showed how bitcoin would get up to $100,000

Expert Dave the wave popular in Twitter showed how the bitcoin price would move during the next rally.
In his opinion, the price will get to the point of $16,000 very soon where the target of the ascending pennant pattern materialization is. After that the price will go down to $10,000 — the Fibonacci correction level of 0,382. It will happen at the beginning of 2021.
After that the price will enter the new growth cycle and it will test the point of $110,000 by the end of 2022. The intermediate stops will be the levels of $35,000 and $68,000 from which the price will be corrected by 25–30% downwards.

Bloomberg: «something extraordinary» must happen for the bitcoin to become cheaper

Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlown thinks that only something «extraordinary» can stop the growth of the BTC price.
He notes that the width of the Bollinger band indicator is at the same point where it was before the beginning of the pump in 2015. It indicates that maximum fall of the volatility level, which is usually followed by a quick rise in the price.
“Demand and adoption metrics remain favorable vs. the crypto asset’s unique attribute of fixed supply”, McGlown writes.
Bloomberg also points out the correlation between the bitcoin and gold charts. If the metal renews its highs, it may provoke the explosive growth of the cryptocurrency price.
submitted by bestchange_pr to bestchange [link] [comments]

Major Moon Math Update: The Pre Halving Prognostication Update

Major Moon Math Update: The Pre Halving Prognostication Update

https://www.moonmath.win/
The halving is coming and just like each preceding halving event bears argue that the halving is priced in while bulls argue that it’s impossible to price in the halving. The pattern repeats itself predictably. If you don’t believe me go back and look at the discussion threads leading up to the last halving. We see the same arguments using the same reasoning today that we saw back then.
Where does Moon Math stand on the controversy? That shouldn’t be hard to predict; both perspectives have important truths to observe. Unwrapping the truths and attaching ourselves to what seems most important is a hard problem, and maybe we can try to figure that out together.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/mgWU9IkM/
We’re going to unpack that graphic over the course of this post.
Bitcoin’s price moves ahead of itself a little before each halving event and cools off immediately after the price surges. That happens even though eight weeks before the last halving we saw the price almost double in a four week period. Bulls will be quick to point out that the price still jumped from a low of $430 to a high of $780, but the market showed that the price was unsustainable on the high end of that.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/pJK2Ppd6/
The 2012 halving also showed an unsustainable doubling of the price, from a low of $7.05 to a high of $15.50 8 weeks before the halving.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/zKx5pyYx/
Each time bitcoin breaks out like this before the halving we see the price recede back to more rational prices. Then, after the halving, the price rises into a slow multi-year parabolic advance.
To be clear, I do NOT see bitcoin’s price doubling again before the halving. That improbable event will take us to a new ATH and performance like that will out pace all previous halving events. It could happen, but $20k bitcoin before the third quarter of this year is an extremely low probability event. Instead, I think we’re seeing the impact of a mature and slower market. Instead of the price doubling over a few weeks we see it more than double over a year. Proportionally we’re right where we should be, and $10k bitcoin only seems like a slightly high premium for late market entrances.
The Moon Math narrative is that the price of bitcoin is stabilizing over time. We can see that by measuring the gap between Bollinger bands from week to week. https://www.tradingview.com/x/uN71Abe5/
BBand width shows us that volatility is trending down, but also that we’re seeing fewer periods of extended price stability. Overall, though, bitcoin is much less volatile in the past.
We can also see that we’ve been in an extended period of accumulation as measured by “on balance volume”
https://www.tradingview.com/x/VlEjfXgd/
The market is accumulating bitcoin week over week and the rate of that accumulation is, compared historically, very gradual. We haven’t seen rapid accumulation spikes pre halving, yet. The lack of obscene pre halving accumulation might convince some bulls that the market hasn’t seen what should be a pre halving surge. Those bulls might pause for a minute and observe the impact of leverage and the increased volume we’ve seen over the last several weeks. The pre halving surge is here, but the market might have priced in the “inevitable” surge and crash by way of leveraged short positions. Have short positions stabilized bitcoin’s price performance and prevented what would otherwise be a very irrational pre halving swing? Indeed, the market cannot rationally anticipate the impact of the halving event, but it can smooth out the peaks and valleys that we’ve seen in the past. Again, look at OBV and BBand widths on the weekly chart and try to tell yourself that bitcoin is less stable today than it was 4 or 8 years ago.
Retail’s share of overall market volume has also been increasing steadily.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/33C6kCo
The story is the same with (green) and without (red) Bitmex. More bitcoins are being purchased on unleveraged markets. Presumably those bitcoins are being held longer term.
On the twelve-hour chart we see a descending broadening wedge.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/dfi2jtzB/
http://thepatternsite.com/dbw.html
If this pattern confirms we’ll see an irrational pre halving surge, but I don’t think it we’ll see a local high before the halving.

The Final prognostication

Cash, stability, volume, fractals, fundamentals, classical charts… everything is pointing to business as usual for the halving, but with less gusto. The price isn’t going to do a lot in 2020 and any substantial breakout will probably be kyboshed by way of shorts on leveraged markets. It’s going to look a lot like past halvings; the price will look and feel flat, which is what our final chart projects.
Behold, the price projected using the price performance of the last two halvings. The blue line describes what I think will happen: https://www.tradingview.com/x/kdrfJNA
And now zoomed out:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/1B9PVdF0/
So, as always, zoom the fuck out.
Good hunting
submitted by jarederaj to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Is wealth matrix robot legit?

Is wealth matrix robot legit?

Is wealth matrix robot legit?
We have analyzed wealth matrix trading software carefully together with its key factors to work out whether this trading robot is legit and will be trusted. Following our review, we tend to can confirm that wealth matrix is legit and trustworthy. The robot efforts to supply a safe trading surroundings by channeling traders to regulated brokers and protects members’ data. The fact that robot partners with regulated brokers ensures that users’ funds are held in segregated accounts and users will be compensated if the broker goes into bankruptcy.

wealth matrix’s web site is SSL secured and the corporate offers high protection options against any cyber threat. wealth matrix discloses crucial info regarding the corporate including its Privacy Policy, Terms, Earnings Disclaimer, and Spam Policy. The robot additionally claims that there are no hidden fees and withdrawals can be made anytime and instantly.

wealth matrix Legit
How does wealth matrix work?
wealth matrix offers a totally different kind of automated trading algorithm. The corporate has developed the 8 high-finish pattern recognition algorithm to detect trading opportunities within the crypto market. In straightforward terms, the software allegedly is ready the scan and analyze the crypto market by employing a powerful AI-driven algorithm to suggest profitable trades and then execute these trades at just once for all its members.

The robot reports that the AI Matrix Professional software may be a highly accurate trading software that eventually can generate profits for people who invested within the platform. By using a number of the foremost advanced trading technologies within the market, wealth matrix supposedly is in a position to conduct market research and analyze trading charts. The robot claims to use a preset of technical indicators like Moving Average, RSI, Bollinger Bands, and oscillator to derive successful trading signals.

Then, the robot is ready to connect to a robot broker that executes a giant variety of orders simultaneously by using another powerful trading algorithm. The robot broker provides a leverage ratio of up to one:a thousand and immediately executes the orders through many market manufacturers. Our review confirms that wealth matrix partners with well-reputed regulated brokers.

Open account currently

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According to user reviews, wealth matrix seems to be one in all the foremost reliable trading robots in the industry. There are several advantages of this trading software in comparison to different trading robots.

A high claimed profitability
wealth matrix reports that there's no limit to profitability and a few users have created thousands of dollars in one trading day. However, though the robot is entirely automatic, the team states that every user should follow the signals rigorously and act fast on the predictions made by the software. The majority of user testimonials, that seem to be real and from real folks, report having created important profits through the AI Matrix Professional Software.

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We have a tendency to have scan many testimonials and reviews from users who have used wealth matrix AI software and the bulk claim to possess had a positive trading experience. According to these reviews, it seems that wealth matrix will be trusted. It's vital to say that during this trade, a corporation with positive feedback from users indicates that they need the necessary knowledge in providing accurate trading software and reliable business structure.

wealth matrix User Testimonials
Secure and safe trading platform
wealth matrix takes pride in its information and privacy protection policy. Indeed, with the increasing threat of cyber-attacks across the globe, it is a vital factor when choosing a trading robot. While other trading robots cannot shield users’ knowledge and funds, wealth matrix is SSL secured and applies protection options like NortonSecured, VeriSignSecured, and McAffeSecured. Furthermore, users report that the withdrawal method is reliable which wealth matrix offers a responsive support team.

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Our review reveals that this wealth matrix responds immediately to customers’ queries. Users will contact the wealth matrix team via submitting a price tag form on the official web site as well as through the client support team of the assigned broker. Most of the reviews indicate that wealth matrix includes a responsive and useful support team.

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*Remember all trading risks and you shouldn’t risk a lot of then you'll afford to lose.

Getting started with wealth matrix
Before we delve into the account creation process, you should remember that wealth matrix isn't yet accessible in all countries, hence, you may have to check if the robot offers its services in your country of residence. If the robot is obtainable in your country, simply follow the steps to open a free trading account and start trading.

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Initial, move to the wealth matrix official web site and fill in your personal details within the sign-up kind. The robot needs you to submit your first and last name, and your email address. Then, you'll have to create a password and submit your phone number and click on the register currently button. On the next, simply click on the Start Trading button and you will be redirected to a regulated broker in your country.

wealth matrix Registration
Step 2: Get connected to a regulated broker
Now, that you have completed the sign-up method, wealth matrix redirects you to 1 of its partner regulated broker. The robot broker is allowed to collect and investors’ deposits, and guarantee that purchasers’ funds are safe. Unlike other trading robots in the market, wealth matrix allows you to trade on a demo account to follow your skills before you risk real money.

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Now that you're acquainted with the platform, it’s time to deposit funds and begin trading. We tend to remind you that wealth matrix maintains a minimum deposit demand of $250 and we tend to suggest that you start with the minimum requirement. The assigned might need you to submit further documentation that verifies your identity. As you'll see within the image below, the robot allows you to deposit funds via debit and credit cards, with bitcoin.

wealth matrix Registration
Step Four: Live trading
Once the funds are transferred into your account, you'll flip on the software and start trading. Different from different trading robots, wealth matrix offers an array of monetary instruments as well as cryptocurrencies, stocks, fiat currencies, commodities, and indices.

We tend to advocate that you just let the robot work for around eight hours per day and monitor the account for 20 minutes per day. Remember, the cryptocurrency market is open 24/7.

wealth matrix live trading
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Is wealth matrix Legit? The verdict!
From this review, we have a tendency to can confidently state that wealth matrix could be a legitimate trading robot. This robot incorporates a high claimed accuracy rate and allegedly is in a position to get consistent profit through its innovative eight high-finish pattern recognition algorithm. The bulk of users report that wealth matrix’s software performs well and the company offers a solid customer support service and a reliable withdrawal process. However, we have a tendency to should inform you that every one investment opportunities carry a certain risk and you should only trade with a capital you can afford to lose.

FAQs
Is wealth matrix legit or a scam?
wealth matrix is not a scam trading robot. Following this review, it appears that wealth matrix is legit and works in transparency.

Do I want to own a trading expertise and skills to begin trading with wealth matrix?
No, wealth matrix reports that the software was designed to be as easy as potential to use. As a result, anyone will use this software while not having a previous trading expertise.

How abundant should I deposit with wealth matrix?
wealth matrix contains a minimum deposit demand of $250. We suggest that start with $250.

Can I withdraw my profits from wealth matrix?
Yes. Users claim that the withdrawal method takes twenty four-forty eight hours as most.

Trading is comes with risk. All content on our website is provided solely for informational purposes, and isn't an supply to shop for or sell or a solicitation of an supply to buy or sell any security, product, service or investment. The opinions expressed during this Site do not constitute investment advice and freelance monetary recommendation should be sought where
Mark Graham could be a finance author primarily based in London, UK with over 8 years expertise in cryptocurrency and stock writing. He has written for a range of online publications and enjoys writing concerning auto-trading tools.

https://preview.redd.it/quaztxr0ese51.png?width=339&format=png&auto=webp&s=88eb7a8d7ed6f0d3da6a48839e1732cd28ce7529
submitted by cryptoerapro to u/cryptoerapro [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Market Weekly Report - Week of 29/06/2020

Bitcoin Market Weekly Report - Week of 29/06/2020
Bitcoin has been trading sideways in a tight price range from $9,000 to $10,000 since the beginning of May 2020. As a result, its 10-day volatility has now fallen to a new year-to-date low. Looking at the tightened price moves through Bollinger Bands further implies a growing contraction in the cryptocurrency’s volatility.

https://preview.redd.it/wdnind6kns751.png?width=980&format=png&auto=webp&s=6e51b1ed426ff449c09d0b316a32d14093aeb179
A period of low volatility ends up in a breakout. But it is difficult to predict the direction of Bitcoin’s next big move. As shown in the chart below, Bitcoin is trading inside a symmetrical triangle, its price fluctuating within the pattern’s contracting upper and lower trendlines. Since the Triangle appears after Bitcoin’s 150 percent price rally, its bias is to the upside. That puts Bitcoin en route to new 2020 highs.

https://preview.redd.it/w1m2d9knns751.png?width=980&format=png&auto=webp&s=ac596c6c15f62ac13ed96c383864a46065c3aad7
Review of the week:
Former Wall Street investor Tone Vays summarised this week that because of Bitcoin’s high correlation with the stock market (S&P 500), BTC will be stuck in the $6,000 to $10,000 range until 2021. On a technical level, he added, Bitcoin’s daily relative strength index, or RSI, breaking below a long-term trendline in June came at the same time as higher Bitcoin price levels compared to May. And if bears win out, a potential low for BTC/USD should lie in the $7,000 zone, with an RSI of around 30. Bitcoin is more likely to break this consolidation to the downside rather than the upside.
Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice.

About Coinviva:
Coinviva aims to create the best crypto financial services ecosystem for both institutional and individual investors. We provide reliable fiat funding options, excellent trading liquidity, bank security level custody and one-stop high liquidity provision on-site & off-site. Our founding management team all come from top tiered investment banking (e.g. JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Merrill Lynch), with fully comprehensive financial institution operation experience.
Homepage: https://coinviva.com/
Telegram: https://t.me/coinviva
submitted by Coinviva to u/Coinviva [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Weekly Data - (BLX) posted for them data homies

Bitcoin Weekly Data - (BLX) Bitcoin Closes the Week range bound between high of $9,798.09
and low of $9,667.76 in a tight 1.35% range. Stochastic K maintains upward momentum staying above Stochastic D looking to climb to 90's with stochastic K clsoing @ 89.43. Bitcoin inches out .22% gains to close the week slightly up from last week. RSI maintains in bull zone with inching higher closing @ 58.89. If Bitcoin can gain momentum, we can look for it to test its upper Weekly bollinger band (BB) @ 11,329.12. Last time Bitcoin has tested its weekly BB was 2/03/2020 with upper BB @ $9980.12 & Bitcoin closing the week @ $10,167 1.84% above its weekly BB (stockastic K was @ 94.14). Bitcoin has closed a total of 85 weeks above its weekly bollinger band since start of BLX chart data starting 7/12/2010. Bitcoin had first close above its weekly BB @ $0.64 @ $0.90 the week of 1/31/2011. Bitcoin closed 20 weeks above its weekly BB in 2017; 0 closes above in 2018; 9 closes above in 2019; 1 close above so far in 2020. Will Bitcoin flip its trend climbing above $10,500 and close above its weekly BB in the coming weeks??
submitted by philjonesfaceoffury to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Our Network Issue 5 (Decred Round 4)

Our Network Issue 5 (Decred Round 4)
Our Network Newsletter Issue #15 (Decreds fourth appearance) is released, check it out here and below. https://ournetwork.substack.com/p/our-network-issue-15

Insight 1 - Stock to Flow Model

The past month of price action in the cryptocurrency markets has been extreme, with Decred price action being no exception. This week we look at a number of key metrics which have reached extreme values, often associated with the formation of price bottoms, reflexivity, and mean reversion.
The first metric is the Stock-to-Flow model which was developed by the author. This model considers a log-log regression fit between Market Cap and the Stock-to-flow ratio of the Decred coin supply. The S2F Multiple is also shown which functions as an oscillator, indicating when network valuation has become oveundervalued relative to the S2F 'fair value' model. Following the price drop on 12/Mar, the DCR S2F multiple has entered the historical low zone last seen in Jan 2017.
https://preview.redd.it/7o6dzb47r5r41.png?width=1528&format=png&auto=webp&s=e8b2f077ffe090dfa3746b2b514c0db63dcd91ee

Insight 2 - Stock-to-Flow Residuals

The next chart shows the statistical distance between the Decred Market Cap and the predicted S2F model valuation, measured in standard deviations. For reference, an equivalent S2F model for Bitcoin is shown, with some interesting similarities in the fractals playing out in Decred's price discovery.
It can be seen for both networks, that as network value approaches ~2x standard deviations from the prediction, price tends to snap back towards the mean. For Bitcoin, this generally coincides with halving events, a shock to S2F value and scarcity. For Decred, this is more closely associated with oversold conditions since the smooth issuance curve is less variable than Bitcoin's.
https://preview.redd.it/1httuil6r5r41.png?width=1520&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f0da25cc47b7969f6fbfed9f9376a13d0c43002

Insight 3 - 142-day Ticket Sum

An on-chain metric developed by u/permabullnino is the 142-day sum of all USD value bound in Decred tickets. DCR coins bound in tickets are indicative of strong demand for holding DCR long term. This metric (red line) has shown to act similar to an upper bound Bollinger Band as resistance during price discovery.
By taking Fibonacci multiples (23.6%, 38.2% and 61.8%) of the 142-day ticket sum, additional trading ranges and boundaries have been identified. In particular, the 23.6% Fibonacci multiple (green line) has provided lower bound support throughout bull and bear cycles. In the 12/Mar market sell-off, price pierced below this level before rapidly bouncing back into the range.
https://preview.redd.it/oigufn86r5r41.png?width=1388&format=png&auto=webp&s=5988ef2953cf40d3c39d8d441af9a1eb4355bd0b

Insight 4 - Puell Multiple

Decred ASIC miners have endured very challenging market conditions after ASIC hardware was first released in Jan 2018, at the peak of the alt-coin market cycle. Given miners are long term thinkers and investors, the Puell Multiple provides insight into whether income streams are profitable or not and the level of stress in the hash-power network.
The Puell Multiple takes the ratio of daily PoW USD income to its 365day average. This provides a view of today's income relative to the past year. Similar to the metrics shown above, the Puell Multiple is approaching an extreme value commonly associated with the proverbial event where 'miners put the bottom in'.
https://preview.redd.it/m1l3lct5r5r41.png?width=1303&format=png&auto=webp&s=e1143baa59722d8e8e9805d17bb6ebf06f8a63ee

Insight 5 - Decred DEX First Atomic Swap

The Decred DEX is currently under development and is aiming to provide trustless exchange between crypto-assets via atomic swap technology. On Wednesday this week, Decred DEX server client successfully coordinated its first trustless exchange between DCR and BTC on test net.
The DEX swapped 42 DCR for 0.42 BTC with an output from bitcoin-core testnet below showing successful receipt of the coins. Full transaction details of the atomic swap are found here for those interested in the inner workings (https://gist.github.com/chappjc/6c5bc6d9244e02249b867e8fe76e4762).
https://preview.redd.it/sb32fll5r5r41.png?width=1079&format=png&auto=webp&s=a2277c81d6993872c1e3a3e52b9d5e80c044ac18
submitted by __checkmatey__ to decred [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Weekly Data - (BLX) Bitcoin - New weekly Data posted for the data homies

Bitcoin Weekly Data - (BLX) Bitcoin - New weekly Data posted for the data homies
Bitcoin Weekly Data - (BLX) Bitcoin Closes the Week range bound between high of $9,798.09and low of $9,667.76 in a tight 1.35% range. Stochastic K maintains upward momentum staying above Stochastic D looking to climb to 90's with stochastic K clsoing @ 89.43. Bitcoin inches out .22% gains to close the week slightly up from last week. RSI maintains in bull zone with inching higher closing @ 58.89. If Bitcoin can gain momentum, we can look for it to test its upper Weekly bollinger band (BB) @ 11,329.12. Last time Bitcoin has tested its weekly BB was 2/03/2020 with upper BB @ $9980.12 & Bitcoin closing the week @ $10,167 1.84% above its weekly BB (stockastic K was @ 94.14). Bitcoin has closed a total of 85 weeks above its weekly bollinger band since start of BLX chart data starting 7/12/2010. Bitcoin had first close above its weekly BB @ $0.64 @ $0.90 the week of 1/31/2011. Bitcoin closed 20 weeks above its weekly BB in 2017; 0 closes above in 2018; 9 closes above in 2019; 1 close above so far in 2020. Will Bitcoin flip its trend climbing above $10,500 and close above its weekly BB in the coming weeks??

https://preview.redd.it/vkspxqyqft351.png?width=2057&format=png&auto=webp&s=7aa2fd6acd5d3ffd13335a6433b53ccf21f789a9
submitted by philjonesfaceoffury to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Rally

Not trying to get into a philosophical debate about the merits of bitcoin. Just pure speculation on a 1-2 year play.
I believe bitcoins 3 year chart is suggesting another run. MACD turning positive. Upper bollinger band breaks on last two pops. It looks like a bull flag or a cup and handle set up.
I see it testing 12k range then consolidating around 10k for a bigger push.
What are your thoughts?
submitted by dinomigo to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin

Not trying to get into a philosophical debate about the merits of bitcoin. Just pure speculation on a short term play.
I believe bitcoins 3 year chart is suggesting another run. MACD turning positive. Upper bollinger band breaks on last two pops. It looks like a bull flag or a cup and handle set up.
I see it testing 12k range then consolidating around 10k for a bigger push.
What are your thoughts?
submitted by dinomigo to investing [link] [comments]

Major Moon Math Update: The Pre Halving Prognostication Update

Major Moon Math Update: The Pre Halving Prognostication Update

https://www.moonmath.win/
The halving is coming and just like each preceding halving event bears argue that the halving is priced in while bulls argue that it’s impossible to price in the halving. The pattern repeats itself predictably. If you don’t believe me go back and look at the discussion threads leading up to the last halving. We see the same arguments using the same reasoning today that we saw back then.
Where does Moon Math stand on the controversy? That shouldn’t be hard to predict; both perspectives have important truths to observe. Unwrapping the truths and attaching ourselves to what seems most important is a hard problem, and maybe we can try to figure that out together.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/mgWU9IkM/
We’re going to unpack that graphic over the course of this post.
Bitcoin’s price moves ahead of itself a little before each halving event and cools off immediately after the price surges. That happens even though eight weeks before the last halving we saw the price almost double in a four week period. Bulls will be quick to point out that the price still jumped from a low of $430 to a high of $780, but the market showed that the price was unsustainable on the high end of that.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/pJK2Ppd6/
The 2012 halving also showed an unsustainable doubling of the price, from a low of $7.05 to a high of $15.50 8 weeks before the halving.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/zKx5pyYx/
Each time bitcoin breaks out like this before the halving we see the price recede back to more rational prices. Then, after the halving, the price rises into a slow multi-year parabolic advance.
To be clear, I do NOT see bitcoin’s price doubling again before the halving. That improbable event will take us to a new ATH and performance like that will out pace all previous halving events. It could happen, but $20k bitcoin before the third quarter of this year is an extremely low probability event. Instead, I think we’re seeing the impact of a mature and slower market. Instead of the price doubling over a few weeks we see it more than double over a year. Proportionally we’re right where we should be, and $10k bitcoin only seems like a slightly high premium for late market entrances.
The Moon Math narrative is that the price of bitcoin is stabilizing over time. We can see that by measuring the gap between Bollinger bands from week to week. https://www.tradingview.com/x/uN71Abe5/
BBand width shows us that volatility is trending down, but also that we’re seeing fewer periods of extended price stability. Overall, though, bitcoin is much less volatile in the past.
We can also see that we’ve been in an extended period of accumulation as measured by “on balance volume”
https://www.tradingview.com/x/VlEjfXgd/
The market is accumulating bitcoin week over week and the rate of that accumulation is, compared historically, very gradual. We haven’t seen rapid accumulation spikes pre halving, yet. The lack of obscene pre halving accumulation might convince some bulls that the market hasn’t seen what should be a pre halving surge. Those bulls might pause for a minute and observe the impact of leverage and the increased volume we’ve seen over the last several weeks. The pre halving surge is here, but the market might have priced in the “inevitable” surge and crash by way of leveraged short positions. Have short positions stabilized bitcoin’s price performance and prevented what would otherwise be a very irrational pre halving swing? Indeed, the market cannot rationally anticipate the impact of the halving event, but it can smooth out the peaks and valleys that we’ve seen in the past. Again, look at OBV and BBand widths on the weekly chart and try to tell yourself that bitcoin is less stable today than it was 4 or 8 years ago.
Retail’s share of overall market volume has also been increasing steadily.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/33C6kCo
The story is the same with (green) and without (red) Bitmex. More bitcoins are being purchased on unleveraged markets. Presumably those bitcoins are being held longer term.
On the twelve-hour chart we see a descending broadening wedge.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/dfi2jtzB/
http://thepatternsite.com/dbw.html
If this pattern confirms we’ll see an irrational pre halving surge, but I don’t think it we’ll see a local high before the halving.

The Final Prognostication

Cash, stability, volume, fractals, fundamentals, classical charts… everything is pointing to business as usual for the halving, but with less gusto. The price isn’t going to do a lot in 2020 and any substantial breakout will probably be kyboshed by way of shorts on leveraged markets. It’s going to look a lot like past halvings; the price will look and feel flat, which is what our final chart projects.
Behold, the price projected using the price performance of the last two halvings. The blue line describes what I think will happen: https://www.tradingview.com/x/kdrfJNA
And now zoomed out:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/1B9PVdF0/
So, as always, zoom the fuck out.
Good hunting
submitted by jarederaj to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

04-26 14:54 - 'An Outsiders Take On Bitcoin Price Prediction' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/giantsIV removed from /r/Bitcoin within 854-864min

'''
Hello everyone, I've never really visited this community before but I was hoping to share a few ideas with everyone!
 
First off, I've never purchased bitcoin nor have I really had any other ideas about it other than 'man I wish I got in on that early.' Being quarantined has made me expand my research into areas i've never really touched before and i've made a decent little discovery that hopefully a few of you can appreciate.
 
I don't know how to exactly define my career other than a trend finder. Anywhere from finance to microeconomics trends, one of the things I like to do when finding stocks that will break out is using [Bollinger Bands]1 . They great for seeing the upper and lower sides of a stock. I also like using a 5 day [exponential moving average]2 . None of what i do is new it's basic really. I like finding stocks that have an EMA that hugs the upper Bollinger Band with consistency. [Here's an example using Amazon]3 look at the pink line thats the EMA. I like to follow that EMA hugging the upper Bollinger Band until the inevitable separation of the two begin and the stock price begins its downfall. This has shown to be no different with Bitcoin. [Here is the chart of Bitcoin leading up to its first big burst.]4 Notice the pink line and how close it is to the upper band. Had I seen this way back then I would've been in on it in a second.
Did you see how when the price shot up the upper band and pink EMA line began their separation? [Let's take a closer look]5
We can see that BTC had been trending upward but then suddenly in late November there was a dramatic upturn, this won't be that last time we see that. You can see the EMA get tighter with that upper band. Around that time the price was approximately $8,900 roughly half of what the eventual top price would be of the boom.
 
Quickly deep separation begins and price begins its free fall.
 
[Lets fast forward a year to early 2019.]6 The EMA had dove below the Moving Average and then we see the curve back trending upward.
[Now lets take a closer look at the daily charts]7
There it is again. The EMA hugs the upper band after a dramatic upturn in mid May. The approx. price around this time is $6,700 roughly half of what the top price will be at the boom.
And then history repeats itself. The separation begins and the price begins its free fall again.
 
[Going back to this chart]8 and looking towards the right we can see where we are now. It'll be interesting to watch going forward if that EMA begins its upward swing again. Im excited to follow it and hopefully you are too!!
Good luck all!
'''
An Outsiders Take On Bitcoin Price Prediction
Go1dfish undelete link
unreddit undelete link
Author: giantsIV
1: www*i*vestop*di*.c**/te*ms*b*b**lingerbands.*sp 2: www.*nve*topedia.c*m*te*m*/e/**a.a*p 3: i*gur*com/e2*AN*L 4: im*ur.c*m/*/x*yROQ* 5: img*r**om/a*w*T0N7d 6: imgur*c*m/a/J*i**Vk 7: ***ur.com/a/l9*LS*n 8: imgur.c**/***Gi7YVk
Unknown links are censored to prevent spreading illicit content.
submitted by removalbot to removalbot [link] [comments]

Market Analysis on April 22, 2020: Dash Is Expected to Have A Reductions on April 27

Market Analysis on April 22, 2020: Dash Is Expected to Have A Reductions on April 27
[Today's Hot Tips]
1. [Dash is expected to have a reductions on April 27]
Dash is expected to have a reductions at the block height of 1261440 on April 27. After the reductions, the block reward of Dash will be reduced by about 7.14%, and the block reward will be reduced from 3.11 Dash to 2.89 Dash.
2. [The miners' first selling volume soared]
In the process of market fermentation, there will always be some clearly visible trading signals. In this BTC callback phase, different trading signals indicate that the adjustment is not over. The short-term rapid growth of the latest miner's first selling volume indicator may be a signal of the advent of the waterfall market. After all, the increase in miners' selling volume indicates that the increase in mining costs has forced them to do so. The increase in miners' selling volume has triggered an increase in the supply side of BTC and will also guide the price decline.
3.【Tether company adds 120 million USDT in banknote printing
Tether company adds $ 120 million USDT in banknote printing
4. [The Dutch Central Bank hopes to play a leading role in the development of digital currency]
According to the news from Decrypt on April 21, the Dutch Central Bank issued a report saying that it was "ready to play a leading role in the development of CBDC." The bank said CBDC may play an important role as the country's cash usage decreases. The bank also said that CBDC can also promote the diversification of the payment market.
[Today's market analysis]
Bitcoin (BTC)

https://preview.redd.it/jcc067engbu41.png?width=821&format=png&auto=webp&s=82f1ff552792d4e7effaf4c7dcf20effb825c101
BTC quickly pulled up after falling at about 1 o'clock today, hitting its intraday low of 6808 UDST and intraday high of 6940 USDT within 10 minutes, and then fell back slightly, currently below 6900 USDT. Mainstream currencies rose slightly within the day. BTC is currently reported at 6873.40 USDT on LOEx Global, with a rise of 0.55% in 24h.
Peripheral US crude oil plummeted to a negative number, while US stocks fell about 3% last night. The market of Bitcoin yesterday was dominated by callback lows. First, it fell sharply in the early hours and continued to draw closer to the lower support point of 6750, and finally did not break it. It ushered in the first round of rebound and returned to shock at 6850 line; With the continuation of the shock market, the bearish forces continue to try to force the market to step down again, and then ushered in the second round of rebound when running to 6760, and returned to the shock around 6850 again.
In the daily chart, the K line closed shade line for three consecutive days. Yesterday, a large shade line successfully pulled the currency price below the moving average to shock, and the bearish mood was strong; Today, the market is gradually coming out of the low position, constantly trying to return to its upper continue to run; The five-day moving average and the ten-day moving average still maintain a gentle posture. If the currency price can break the upward trend as expected, and stabilize the fluctuation above it, and it is expected to sprint to run above 7000 again; but space is limited, it is appropriate to lighten up positions.
At the same time, this callback and rebound will cause emotional instability. If today's decadence is not correct, the volume and price will not be collected. If the Doji has been kept closed for in the day, the market will still look down.
In the four-hour level chart, the Bollinger Bands close, and the market is running in the middle and lower rail areas of the Bollinger Bands, which is now located at 6891; The five-day moving average is running smoothly, and the market has now stabilized to run above it; while the upper 60-day moving average is the current short-term maximum resistance level.
Operation suggestions:
Support level: the first support level is 6750 points, the second support level is 6700 integers;
Resistance level: the first resistance level is 7050 points, the second resistance level is 7100 points.
LOEx is registered in Seychelles. It is a global one-stop digital asset service platform with business distribution nodes in 20 regions around the world. It has been exempted from Seychelles and Singapore Monetary Authority (MAS) digital currency trading services. Provide services and secure encrypted digital currency trading environment for 1 million community members in 24 hours.
submitted by LOEXCHANGE to u/LOEXCHANGE [link] [comments]

For Trading February 4th

For Trading February 4th
ISM WAS A BEAT
GOOG BEAT BOTTOM LINE MISSES REVENUES
GILD HAS A “POSSIBLE” VIRAL DRUG
AIMT Approval on Peanut Allergy Drug
Join Us Every Day, Link Below
Today’s market started with a gap up on the news that China was flooding the markets with $1.2Trillion Yuan ($174Billion US$) in the Repo market and after the initial gap we moved higher and made the HOD +474 by about 10:30. After that we spent about 2 hours working back to the lows +120 and spent the rest of the day sideways to down for a finish of +143.78 (.54%), NASDAQ +122.46 (1.34%), S&P 500 +23.40 (.73%), the Russell +18.14 (1.12%) and the DJ Transports we up a meager 23.19 (.22%). The main issue for me, on a technical basis is two-fold; first of all, we closed much closer to the lows, and secondarily, it was an “inside day” generally thought to be inconsequential. However, on the plus side, most of the charts I follow are either AT or NEAR the lower Bollinger Band and are oversold in the short-term. Market internals were pretty close to 1.8:1 positive. That held in the DJIA with 21 gainers vs. 9 losers, and there were no “outsize” gainers or losers. Of course, when you have an external influence like the Coronavirus with news daily, it does make it more difficult to judge what any particular day’s news will mean to the market. We did have 8 of the 11 S&P sectors higher on the day.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: The big news was just after the close with Alphabet (GOOGL) reported a slight miss in revenues but beat on the bottom line. Unfortunately, the stock has risen from a low in October of $1163 to hit $1,525 just after the headline hit with the beat on earnings, but then fell back to $1,397.94 on the revenue miss. It is currently $1,422 – 10.78. Gilead (GILD) said that they have a drug that will help with the Coronavirus. Early in the day the stock hit $68.68 but finished the day $66.36 +3.16 (5%) probably because no matter who finds the answer for a vaccine will undoubtedly have to share it worldwide, blunting the financial gains for the better of mankind. The FDA also granted approval of Aimmune’s (AIMT) peanut allergy drug. The news actually came on Friday, late and the stock rose to about $38, but today’s trading could only manage a high of $36.39 and the close was barely higher at $33.01 +1.95 (6.32%). Not a bad day, but not what was expected. Insmed (INSM) was also a winner on a study that reached its endpoint for the treatment of “non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis” and the stock was up in early trading and after trading as high as $30.44 (51%) it finished the day mid-range at $28.88 +8.34 (40.6%). Away from the biotech area, energy, everyone’s favorite sector to hate, was hit by another major downgrade from Goldman, all the way to an outright sell for XOM. I guess that someone finally figured out that an $ .87 quarterly div, or $3.48/year isn’t enough for a stock that has declined from $73.00 when it paid its last div. to $60.73 as of tonight’s close. I tend to agree, but after a decline in Oil from $66 to close just under $50 today, that they have probably managed to pick a short term bottom for a bounce.
BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with BIIB +3.88, ABBV +1.32, REGN +3.18, ISRG +5.84, MYL +.22, TEVA +.71 (6.83%), VRTX +3.46, BHC +.49, INCY -.13, LABU +3.17, and IBB $115.89 +2.08 (1.83%).
CANNABIS: stocks were MIXED TO LOWER with TLRY -.29, CGC -.29, CRON -.06, GWPH +.02, ACB +.10, ACB +.10, PYX -.02, APHA -.06, NBEV +.05, ACRGF +.04, CURLF -.18, KERN -.33 and MJ $16.66 +.12 (.73%).
DEFENSE: was MIXED with LMT -4.26, RTN -2.09, GD +1.18, TXT +.36, UTX -.84, NOC -10.82, BWXT +.09, TDY +4.28 and ITA $227.31 -.39 (.17%).
RETAIL was MIXED with M + .45, JWN +.66, KSS -.05, DDS -.21, JCP -.035, WMT -.22, TGT +1.51, TJX +1.26, RL unchanged, UAA +.10, LULU +6.98 (2.92%), TPR +.26, CPRI -.14 and XRT $43.49 +.43 (1%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were MIXED with GOOGL (see above), AMZN -3.72, AAPL -1.41, FB +1.97, NFLX +12.51, NVDA +3.57, TSAL +115.43 (17.74%), BABA +6.57, BIDU +6.77, IBM +2.27, BA -2.77, CAT -1.83, and XLK $96.59 +1.26 (1.32%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER across the board with FS +.45, JPM +.79, BAC +.10, MS +.35, C +.72, PNC +.50, AIG +.90, TRV +1.99, AXP +.66 and XLF $30.17 +.21 (.70%).
OIL, $50.11 – 1.45. Today’s action was a continued decline to just below $50 with a minor rally into the close. The stocks were LOWER with the oil market and XLE $52.74 -.70 (1.31%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,582.40 -5.50 after breaking out and tried overnight to make it back over $1,600, but failed and closed near the low of the day. We ran into some excessive supply at $1,598.50 and turning prices back today. We bought the GLD 2/149 calls @ $1.10 and they closed $1.31 -.70 today. Unfortunately, it is down $2.70 tonight.
BITCOIN: closed $9,410 -30. We broke to the upside today and managed a close on the highs. Yesterday I said, “I now expect a test of $9,200 to $9,500”. Tonight we are trading $9,450. We own 750 GBTC with an average of $8.89. GBTC closed $10.60 - .30 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to swingtrading [link] [comments]

Ethereum Corrects Down, While Experts Predict 4,300 Percent Gains

Ethereum Corrects Down, While Experts Predict 4,300 Percent Gains

Some Crypto Experts Even Predict Ethereum May Reach $10,000 In The Near Future
Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency to date, sparked the flame of speculation, as Bitcoin’s runner-up managed to record a yearly high of $230.58. This price point is the highest since August 2019, when the crypto sector saw a massive downward push. As of press time, Ethereum corrected its price, losing 2,4% of its momentum.
Crypto traders are observing Ethereum’s price movements, as the ERC-20 token might become one of the largest gainers in the following few years. Switzerland-based crypto trader Bitcoin Macro made his forecasts about Ethereum’s bullish run on twitter, stating that Ethereum might go over $10,000. However, he noted that his outlook is not for 2020.
The primary cause for Bitcoin Macro’s price forecasts is the long-awaited Ethereum 2.0 update, which will remove mining and upgrade Ethereum to a “proof-of-stake” consensus algorithm. Proof-of-Stake means Ethereum holders may choose to put their savings into a “staking” account, receiving an interest rate for using their tokens on Ethereum’s blockchain. The massive upgrade still doesn’t have an exact timeframe, but the initial phase is scheduled for July 2020. The new protocol might be a turning point in Ethereum’s price movement, skyrocketing the #2 crypto.
Financial experts, however, are seeing signs of a deeper correction, as the short-term price per one ETH token dropped below the 50-day SMA at $225. Ethereum’s price swing settled around the $223 mark. Trading experts are cautious about giving strong predictions because Ethereum’s price suggests a period of consolidation. Bears might try to overcome the $221 support zone, and if so – Ethereum could fall down below the $210 mark.
For a positive correction, crypto experts suggest a massive move above $230, which will mitigate factors such as the 23,6 Fibonacci retracement line, as well as the 4-hour Bollinger bands chart. Looking at the 7-day charts, Ethereum made a 25% price increase – from $185.40 on February 4th, to a high of $229,86 on February 10th. The monthly chart is even more impressive, with Ethereum gaining 61 percent from January 10th.
submitted by Crypto_Browser to CryptoBrowser_EN [link] [comments]

For Trading Jan 7

For Trading January 7th
Markets Rally Off Early Lows
Bond Rally Fizzles
RAD Continues Slide
Join Us Every Day, Link Below
Today’s market started off lower by as much as -216 before the selling pressure subsided and we started back up. By 2:00 we had erased then entire loss and were hanging around unchanged until the last 15 minutes of the day when we sprinted to the high of the day and a close of +68.50 (.24%), NASDAQ +50.69 (.56%, S&P500 +11.43 (.35% while the Russell was a laggard +2.39 (.14%) and the DJ Transports were the standout loser -62.67 (.57%), even though it too closed on the high of the day having been -166 earlier. The transports were pushed lower with JBHT getting a cut in price target to $124 on a downgrade from outperform to market perform, but that wasn’t the only issue. EXPD fell, along with airlines, and at one point all 20 components were lower. Also, even early today, the FAANG stocks turned and pulled many of the large-cap tech sector back to positive. FB +3.93 (1.9%), AMZN +27.91 (1.5%) AAPL +2.37 (.8%) and GOOGL +34.48 (2.53%) led the way. Market internals turned and at the close we were 15:13 on the NYSE and 17:15 on NAZ. These numbers were actually better than several of the up days in the last 10 days. While Oil reversed from almost $65 to close near the lows, Energy was strong, and also a surprise, Bond yields reversed to up on the day, but Banks were mostly lower.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
We closed out our TLT position @ $3.04, a gain of $342, and I also covered 100 RAD of the 300 we are short in the $100M account with a gain of $357.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: Today’s market was really all over the place but the early news was not good. Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) reported a loss of $ .21 vs. expectations of a $ .09 profit, and while the stock bounced off its low of $37.00 to close near the high @ $39.11, it was still lower by $3.34 (7.8%).
On the upside were several big names, CRM was raised at RBC to their BEST IDEA, and the stock jumped to a new all-time high finishing the day $173.45 +7.28 (4.38%).
Smile Direct (SDC) probably the worst IPO of the year, pricing above the $19 -22 range at $23, and then opening -1.45 @ $20.55 and finishing the day $16.67 – 6.33 or 28%), and then falling to a low of $7.56, reported that it is in a deal for some of its products at Walmart. The stock was $10.19 +1.81 (21.6%).
Under Armour (UAA) fell on the resumption of coverage at JPM with a neutral, down from over-perform, questioning the company’s ability to compete in the next half with a “full-price hangover.” The stock finished $20.44 -1.41 (6.45%).
The other big gainer was ATyr Pharma (LIFE), which has been trading between $2.70 and $3.05, and had rallied to close $4.26 on Friday with an average trading volume of 32,000, opened $7.19 +2.93 (68.7%) and traded to 7.62 before finishing $6.11 +1.85 (43.43%) on the news that it signed a collaboration and license agreement for the development with Kyorin Pharma to develop of their clinical candidate, ATYR1923 for ILD’s (interstitial lung diseases).
BIOPHARMA: was MIXED with BIIB -.03, ABBV +.79, REGN -.70, ISRG +2.42, MYL +.67, TEVA -.04, VRTX +6.05 (2.78%), BHC -.56, INCY -.56, ICPT -2.49, LABU +1.43 and IBB $119.12 +.76 (.64%).
CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with TLRY -.50, CGC +.20, CRON -.33, GWPH -.18, ACB -.09, PYX -.74 (8.96%), APHA -.14, ACRGF -.05, CURLF -.20, KERN -.36 and MJ $16.45 -.28 (1.67%).
DEFENSE: was MIXED with LMT -.74, RTN -.11, GD +2.07, TXT -.04, UTX -.34, NOC +.84, BWXT -.16, TDY -1.27, and ITA $231.50 +1.52 (.66%).
RETAIL was HIGHER with M + .56, JWN +1.32, KSS +.19, DDS +.17, JCP +.01, WMT -.54, TGT -1.21, TJX +.39, KR +.10, RL +1.65, USS (see above), LULU +2.27, TPR +.34, CPRI -.31 and XRT $45.47 +.16 (.35%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER across the board with GOOGL +36.48, AMZN +20.53, AAPL +2.19, FB +3.89, NFLX +10.35 (3.18%), NVDA +1.33, TSLA +8.99, BABA unchanged, BIDU +2.14, BOX +.38, IBM -.04, BA +.93, CAT -.19, and XLK $92.56 +.22 (.24%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +1.94, JPM -.54, BAC -.14, MS -.29, C -.28, PNC -.32, AIG -.16, TRV +.15, AXP -1.09 and XLF $30.73 -.02 (.07%).
OIL, $63.27 +.22. Today’s action was a rally to almost $65.00 and a fall back to close near the lows. Supply is fairly heavy here, but the stocks were HIGHER with the XLE $60.87 + .47 (.78%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,560 +16.40 after breaking out “of the box” earlier last week, and has moved higher, and although it traded $1,590, the lack of new negative news caused prices to work lower.
BITCOIN: closed $7710 + 255. We broke to the upside but ran into a brick wall just under $8,000. I was very disappointed to see the break, although we were right back to the lower Bollinger Band. I said “I really interested to see what happens with the 5 and 20-day MA’s now since they are within .02 of each other. Well, they resolved to the upside and I believe we will try 8,000 again. We own 750 GBTC with an average of $8.99. GBTC closed $8.99 +.40 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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For Trading Jan 7

For Trading January 7th
Markets Rally Off Early Lows
Bond Rally Fizzles
RAD Continues Slide
Join Us Every Day, Link Below
Today’s market started off lower by as much as -216 before the selling pressure subsided and we started back up. By 2:00 we had erased then entire loss and were hanging around unchanged until the last 15 minutes of the day when we sprinted to the high of the day and a close of +68.50 (.24%), NASDAQ +50.69 (.56%, S&P500 +11.43 (.35% while the Russell was a laggard +2.39 (.14%) and the DJ Transports were the standout loser -62.67 (.57%), even though it too closed on the high of the day having been -166 earlier. The transports were pushed lower with JBHT getting a cut in price target to $124 on a downgrade from outperform to market perform, but that wasn’t the only issue. EXPD fell, along with airlines, and at one point all 20 components were lower. Also, even early today, the FAANG stocks turned and pulled many of the large-cap tech sector back to positive. FB +3.93 (1.9%), AMZN +27.91 (1.5%) AAPL +2.37 (.8%) and GOOGL +34.48 (2.53%) led the way. Market internals turned and at the close we were 15:13 on the NYSE and 17:15 on NAZ. These numbers were actually better than several of the up days in the last 10 days. While Oil reversed from almost $65 to close near the lows, Energy was strong, and also a surprise, Bond yields reversed to up on the day, but Banks were mostly lower.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
We closed out our TLT position @ $3.04, a gain of $342, and I also covered 100 RAD of the 300 we are short in the $100M account with a gain of $357.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: Today’s market was really all over the place but the early news was not good. Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) reported a loss of $ .21 vs. expectations of a $ .09 profit, and while the stock bounced off its low of $37.00 to close near the high @ $39.11, it was still lower by $3.34 (7.8%).
On the upside were several big names, CRM was raised at RBC to their BEST IDEA, and the stock jumped to a new all-time high finishing the day $173.45 +7.28 (4.38%).
Smile Direct (SDC) probably the worst IPO of the year, pricing above the $19 -22 range at $23, and then opening -1.45 @ $20.55 and finishing the day $16.67 – 6.33 or 28%), and then falling to a low of $7.56, reported that it is in a deal for some of its products at Walmart. The stock was $10.19 +1.81 (21.6%).
Under Armour (UAA) fell on the resumption of coverage at JPM with a neutral, down from over-perform, questioning the company’s ability to compete in the next half with a “full-price hangover.” The stock finished $20.44 -1.41 (6.45%).
The other big gainer was ATyr Pharma (LIFE), which has been trading between $2.70 and $3.05, and had rallied to close $4.26 on Friday with an average trading volume of 32,000, opened $7.19 +2.93 (68.7%) and traded to 7.62 before finishing $6.11 +1.85 (43.43%) on the news that it signed a collaboration and license agreement for the development with Kyorin Pharma to develop of their clinical candidate, ATYR1923 for ILD’s (interstitial lung diseases).
BIOPHARMA: was MIXED with BIIB -.03, ABBV +.79, REGN -.70, ISRG +2.42, MYL +.67, TEVA -.04, VRTX +6.05 (2.78%), BHC -.56, INCY -.56, ICPT -2.49, LABU +1.43 and IBB $119.12 +.76 (.64%).
CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with TLRY -.50, CGC +.20, CRON -.33, GWPH -.18, ACB -.09, PYX -.74 (8.96%), APHA -.14, ACRGF -.05, CURLF -.20, KERN -.36 and MJ $16.45 -.28 (1.67%).
DEFENSE: was MIXED with LMT -.74, RTN -.11, GD +2.07, TXT -.04, UTX -.34, NOC +.84, BWXT -.16, TDY -1.27, and ITA $231.50 +1.52 (.66%).
RETAIL was HIGHER with M + .56, JWN +1.32, KSS +.19, DDS +.17, JCP +.01, WMT -.54, TGT -1.21, TJX +.39, KR +.10, RL +1.65, USS (see above), LULU +2.27, TPR +.34, CPRI -.31 and XRT $45.47 +.16 (.35%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER across the board with GOOGL +36.48, AMZN +20.53, AAPL +2.19, FB +3.89, NFLX +10.35 (3.18%), NVDA +1.33, TSLA +8.99, BABA unchanged, BIDU +2.14, BOX +.38, IBM -.04, BA +.93, CAT -.19, and XLK $92.56 +.22 (.24%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +1.94, JPM -.54, BAC -.14, MS -.29, C -.28, PNC -.32, AIG -.16, TRV +.15, AXP -1.09 and XLF $30.73 -.02 (.07%).
OIL, $63.27 +.22. Today’s action was a rally to almost $65.00 and a fall back to close near the lows. Supply is fairly heavy here, but the stocks were HIGHER with the XLE $60.87 + .47 (.78%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,560 +16.40 after breaking out “of the box” earlier last week, and has moved higher, and although it traded $1,590, the lack of new negative news caused prices to work lower.
BITCOIN: closed $7710 + 255. We broke to the upside but ran into a brick wall just under $8,000. I was very disappointed to see the break, although we were right back to the lower Bollinger Band. I said “I really interested to see what happens with the 5 and 20-day MA’s now since they are within .02 of each other. Well, they resolved to the upside and I believe we will try 8,000 again. We own 750 GBTC with an average of $8.99. GBTC closed $8.99 +.40 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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For Trading Dec 24

For Trading December 24th
BOEING CEO FIRED Stock Higher
TSLA NEW ALL-TIME HIGH, again!
Home Run of the Day!
Join Us Every Day, Link Below
Today’s market took off right from the start with the news that Dennis Muilenburg was fired from BA. The futures were just slightly higher before the news but the added action in BA pushed them up to a +90 open. We spent a while grinding higher and were +127 around 11:45 and everyone must have hit the eggnog because it became a sleep afternoon with a slight selloff near the close to finish +96.43 (.34%). NASDAQ +20.69 (.23%), S&P 500 +2.79 (.09%), the Russell +2.24 (.13%), and the DJ Transports +11.95 (.11%). It was an “inside day” with NYSE internals 4:4 and NAZ 8:7. DJIA was 17:12 and MSFT unchanged. The leaders were BA +65, AAPL +30 and MMM +21DPs. On the downside we had only 2 double-digits, DIS -15 and HD-14DPs.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: We started with the above mentioned BA news after an actual Halt for news pending and it was the biggest DJIA winner on the day. RiteAid (RAD), also a major turnaround to actual earning that was reversed 1:20 in April had already worked its way from $5.02 in August to close yesterday $8.32, and blasted higher to close $11.84 +3.52 (42.31%). It continued higher again today closing + .98 (7%). Apple received yet another upgrade today from Wedbush, calling for a “super-cycle” of upgrades on the 5G launch coming next year and gave it a street high price objective of $350. As mentioned in the headlines, TSLA made a new high at $422.01, above the $420 that Elon Musk tweeted (and got into trouble over) was his buyout price earlier in the year. The stock is up from $176.99 in June for a gain of 172%.
And, the HOMERUN OF THE DAY WAS Intra-Cellular (ITCI), who received an FDA approval for its new schizophrenia drug and the stock, whose all-time high was $60.79 in late 2015 and had fallen to a recent and new low of $6.75 in mid-October had closed $12.44 on Friday gapped up on the news to open $25.50 and trade as high as $43.56, finished the day $36.51 +24.07 (193.49%). Just a note, this was a topic of discussion in our Discord room this morning and 2 of our participants traded the stock for excellent gains. The link is just above for your convenience.
BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with BIIB +.51, ABBV +.76, REGN -1.42, ISRG +6.11 (1.03%)we had a trade there today, MYL +.13, TEVA -.16, VRTX -.71, BHC +.11, INCY +.06, ICPT +4.60 (3.85%), LABU +1.86, and IBB $122.99 +.94 (.77%).
CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with only CRON +.05 and APHA +.01 while KERN, the compliance software firm $8.50 -1.80 (17.48%) and MJ $16.94 - .15 (.88%). This may be a good group for January trades after tax-selling.
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with the passage of the new budget extension and ITA $226.43 +2.43 (1.08%).
RETAIL was MIXED with the stores slightly higher, the discounters and the brands lower. To me, this spells trouble coming since it would seem to me to be the big stores discounting and crushing their own margins, only to suffer again when they report earnings (or lack thereof). The XRT was $45.55 -.16 (.35%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were MIXED with GOOGL -.59, AMZN +6.50, AAPL +5.12, FB -.16, NFLX -3.90, NVDA -.25, TSLA +14.10 (3.48%), BABA +2.70, BIDU +1.46, BOX -.14, IBM -.03, BA +9.36, CAT +.93, and XLK 91.21 +.26 (.29%).
FINANCIALS were MIXED with GS +.22, JPM -.02, BAC +.23, MS +.03, PNC +.26, AIG -.57, TRV -.20, AXP -1.28, and XLF $30.16 -.07 (.23%).
OIL, $60.52 +.08. Today’s action was mostly just another quiet and short-range “inside” day, with a nice upward bias. The stocks were HIGHER and XLE was $61.99 +.63 (1.03%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,488.70 +7.80 in another short-range day “in the box.” The range continues intact between $1,490 and $1,460, and today’s close is right near the top. Prices are slightly higher tonight at $1,492 + 3.60, so we’ll see if we can breakout.
BITCOIN: closed $7410 +180. We broke to the upside but ran into a brick wall just under $8,000. I was very disappointed to see the break, although we are right back to the lower Bollinger Band. After having a GTC order @ $9.85 since we sold on 11/5, we finally got filled on the first 350 shares. I added 400 GBTC at $8.06 bringing the average down to $8.99. GBTC closed $8.99 +.11 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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For trading Dec 24th

For Trading December 24th
BOEING CEO FIRED Stock Higher
TSLA NEW ALL-TIME HIGH, again!
Home Run of the Day!
Join Us Every Day, Link Below
Today’s market took off right from the start with the news that Dennis Muilenburg was fired from BA. The futures were just slightly higher before the news but the added action in BA pushed them up to a +90 open. We spent a while grinding higher and were +127 around 11:45 and everyone must have hit the eggnog because it became a sleep afternoon with a slight selloff near the close to finish +96.43 (.34%). NASDAQ +20.69 (.23%), S&P 500 +2.79 (.09%), the Russell +2.24 (.13%), and the DJ Transports +11.95 (.11%). It was an “inside day” with NYSE internals 4:4 and NAZ 8:7. DJIA was 17:12 and MSFT unchanged. The leaders were BA +65, AAPL +30 and MMM +21DPs. On the downside we had only 2 double-digits, DIS -15 and HD-14DPs.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: We started with the above mentioned BA news after an actual Halt for news pending and it was the biggest DJIA winner on the day. RiteAid (RAD), also a major turnaround to actual earning that was reversed 1:20 in April had already worked its way from $5.02 in August to close yesterday $8.32, and blasted higher to close $11.84 +3.52 (42.31%). It continued higher again today closing + .98 (7%). Apple received yet another upgrade today from Wedbush, calling for a “super-cycle” of upgrades on the 5G launch coming next year and gave it a street high price objective of $350. As mentioned in the headlines, TSLA made a new high at $422.01, above the $420 that Elon Musk tweeted (and got into trouble over) was his buyout price earlier in the year. The stock is up from $176.99 in June for a gain of 172%.
And, the HOMERUN OF THE DAY WAS Intra-Cellular (ITCI), who received an FDA approval for its new schizophrenia drug and the stock, whose all-time high was $60.79 in late 2015 and had fallen to a recent and new low of $6.75 in mid-October had closed $12.44 on Friday gapped up on the news to open $25.50 and trade as high as $43.56, finished the day $36.51 +24.07 (193.49%). Just a note, this was a topic of discussion in our Discord room this morning and 2 of our participants traded the stock for excellent gains. The link is just above for your convenience.
BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with BIIB +.51, ABBV +.76, REGN -1.42, ISRG +6.11 (1.03%)we had a trade there today, MYL +.13, TEVA -.16, VRTX -.71, BHC +.11, INCY +.06, ICPT +4.60 (3.85%), LABU +1.86, and IBB $122.99 +.94 (.77%).
CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with only CRON +.05 and APHA +.01 while KERN, the compliance software firm $8.50 -1.80 (17.48%) and MJ $16.94 - .15 (.88%). This may be a good group for January trades after tax-selling.
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with the passage of the new budget extension and ITA $226.43 +2.43 (1.08%).
RETAIL was MIXED with the stores slightly higher, the discounters and the brands lower. To me, this spells trouble coming since it would seem to me to be the big stores discounting and crushing their own margins, only to suffer again when they report earnings (or lack thereof). The XRT was $45.55 -.16 (.35%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were MIXED with GOOGL -.59, AMZN +6.50, AAPL +5.12, FB -.16, NFLX -3.90, NVDA -.25, TSLA +14.10 (3.48%), BABA +2.70, BIDU +1.46, BOX -.14, IBM -.03, BA +9.36, CAT +.93, and XLK 91.21 +.26 (.29%).
FINANCIALS were MIXED with GS +.22, JPM -.02, BAC +.23, MS +.03, PNC +.26, AIG -.57, TRV -.20, AXP -1.28, and XLF $30.16 -.07 (.23%).
OIL, $60.52 +.08. Today’s action was mostly just another quiet and short-range “inside” day, with a nice upward bias. The stocks were HIGHER and XLE was $61.99 +.63 (1.03%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,488.70 +7.80 in another short-range day “in the box.” The range continues intact between $1,490 and $1,460, and today’s close is right near the top. Prices are slightly higher tonight at $1,492 + 3.60, so we’ll see if we can breakout.
BITCOIN: closed $7410 +180. We broke to the upside but ran into a brick wall just under $8,000. I was very disappointed to see the break, although we are right back to the lower Bollinger Band. After having a GTC order @ $9.85 since we sold on 11/5, we finally got filled on the first 350 shares. I added 400 GBTC at $8.06 bringing the average down to $8.99. GBTC closed $8.99 +.11 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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For Trading Dec 27

For Trading December 27th
NASDAQ 9000 TSLA NEW ALL-TIME HIGH, again!
AMZN & RAD BIG MOVERS
Join Us Every Day, Link Below
Today’s market started off slowly and had a slow, steady climb to +81 by 11:30 followed by a quiet back and forth to make the intraday low of +36 by about 3:30 and a fast buying spree that took us to the new high of day and a close of +105.94 (.37%), NASDAQ +69.51 (.78%), S&P 500 +16.53 (.51%), the Russell -.34 (.02%), and the DJ Transports +35.05 (.32%). Market internals were positive with NYSE A/D 1.7:1 and NAZ 1.2:1. For the DOW we were 23 UP, 6 down and PG unchanged. There were only 3 double-digit moves with AAPL +38 DPs and V +10 while BA -21DPs.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: We started with the story that QGEN was failed to find any acceptable offers after their strategic review and search for an appropriate suitor. The stock had declined from $41 last summer and then fell from $32 to $25 in October when it lowered guidance. The news that they were “reviewing options” took the stock back to a new high of $43.16 last month, but the current news dropped the stock to $30.23 before closing $32.91 -8.56 (20.64%).
RiteAid (RAD), also a major turnaround to actual earning that was reversed 1:20 in April had already worked its way from $5.02 in August to close last Wednesday $8.32, and blasted higher to close $11.84 +3.52 (42.31%). It continued higher again every day since and today finished $19.19 +3.05 (19.8%) and traded as high as $21.30 in extended hours. Besides the earnings last week, the stock was recommended by Zack’s this morning, but I think more important is the fact that there is a 26.6% short interest in the stock.
Amazon’s numbers were exceptional, and the company said it added 5 million new Prime customers, either with free trials and paid subscriptions. The numbers were topline only but the stock had an EXCEPTIONAL day +90.89 (5.08%).
One of last week’s winners, MBOT, which ran up from $5.00 to $20 on an FDA approval of a robotic device did what many small firms do when their stock takes off, they issue more shares. MBOT did a “direct offering at the market, and the stock took it on the chin, gapping down from $16.28 to $13.35 and finished the day $14.00 -2.28 (14%).
And, the Disaster Du Jour was Spectrum Pharma (SPPI), whose lung cancer trial didn’t make its expected endpoint. The stock has spent most of the year between $7.00 and $12, closed $7.75 Tuesday gapped down on the news and closed $3.50 -5.25 (60%).
BIOPHARMA: was LOWER with BIIB -2.28, ABBV +.05, REGN -1.65, ISRG-.78, MTL -.27, TEVA +.08, VRTX -.31, BHC -.04, INCY -2.64, ICPT -.83, LABU -2.10 and IBB $122.58 -.92 (.74%).
CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with only 2 names higher; KERN, the compliance software stock +.97 (12.31%) and PYX +.39 (6.17%). MJ was $16.73 -.41 (2.39%). This may be a good group for January trades after tax-selling.
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +2.70, RTN +1.67, GD -.57, TXT +.01, UTX +1.14, NOC +.88, BWXT -.16, TDY +.85, and ITA $224.90 -.20 (.09%).
RETAIL was HIGHER with the stores, discounters and the brands all up. To me, this spells trouble coming since it would seem to me to be the big stores discounting and crushing their own margins, only to suffer again when they report earnings (or lack thereof). The XRT was $46.05 +.33 (.72%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were MIXED with GOOGL +19.57, AMZN (see above), AAPL +6.55 (2.3%), FB +3.07, NFLX -.55, NVDA +.88, TSLA +6.25, BABA +2.66, BIDU -.72, BOX +.01, IBM +.02, BA -2.75, CAT +.97, XLK $91.92 +.68 (.75%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +1.61, JPM +1.52, BAC +.33, MS +.42, C +1.34, PNC + .73, AIG -.32, TRV +.46, AXP +.71 and XLF $30.85 +.17 (.55%).
OIL, $61.68 + .57. Today’s action was mostly another solid up day, with a nice upward bias. The stocks were HIGHER and XLE was $61.94 -.02 (.03%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,514.40 + 9.60 after breaking out “of the box” earlier in the week, and has moved higher, and is now approaching the resistance around the $1,520 to $1,525 range.
BITCOIN: closed $7250 + 15. We broke to the upside but ran into a brick wall just under $8,000. I was very disappointed to see the break, although we are right back to the lower Bollinger Band. After having a GTC order @ $9.85 since we sold on 11/5, we finally got filled on the first 350 shares. I added 400 GBTC at $8.06 bringing the average down to $8.99. GBTC closed $8.80 -.05 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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For Dec 31st

For Trading December 31st
Sellers Take Control Midday Bounce Fails
Bonds Rally Off Lows
RAD Falls Back To Earth
Join Us Every Day, Link Below
Today’s market started off slightly to the downside as futures were weak overnight. We started right around unchanged but by 10:30 we were at the lows of the day -216, and then spent until 1:00 grinding higher to make it back to the H.O.D. -76, and then fell back to -210 in late trading, finally closing -183.12 (.64%), NASDAQ -60.63 (.67%). S&P 500 -18.73 (.58%), the Russell down for the second day -4.88 (.29%) and the DJ Transports -63.12 (.57%). Internals were week, but not terribly at NYSE 4:3 lower and NAZ 3:2 down. The DIA was a dramatic 29:1 DOWN with only AAPL higher adding only 11 DPs. The biggest losers were BA -25, HD -18, IBM -17 and UNH -15 DP’s. As I’ve written both here and in the Weekly Strategies, this market is well overbought and needs (and deserves) a rest of either a pullback or at least some relatively sideways action to work off the gains. We have gotten a bit of a reprieve lately as we get to year-end, and buying continued. Sellers seemed to want to hold off taking gains this year, especially in the biggest names with the biggest gains, but not everyone got the memo. As I have mentioned, I believe that the consumer has downgraded their buying in favor of the discounters like WMT, TGT, TJX, and ROST, as well as even the nest level down, like FIVE, DLTR and DG, leaving the majors to heavily discount just to move inventory. We won’t know for a few weeks if that is the case, but consumer debt is at very high levels, and that’s the group that the talking heads have told everyone has helped buoy business. It certainly hasn’t been industrials and manufacturing. Again: CAUTION IS REQUIRED.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: Several times last week I discussed the dramatic rise in RAD. Here’s the story:
RiteAid (RAD), also a major turnaround to actual earning that was reversed 1:20 in April had already worked its way from $5.02 in August to close last Wednesday $8.32, and blasted higher to close $11.84 +3.52 (42.31%). It continued higher again every day since and today finished $19.19 +3.05 (19.8%) and traded as high as $21.30 in extended hours. Besides the earnings last week, the stock was recommended by Zack’s this morning, but I think more important is the fact that there is a 26.6% short interest in the stock. We got short the stock on Friday with the purchase of puts as well as an actual short of 300 at $22.52 after the stock had made its new intraday high of $23.88, a move of over 300% in 8 trading days. The stock closed on the low on Friday at $20.30 +1.11, having left a gap to the upside for the day. This morning’s gap to the downside left what I think is an “island reversal” and if you saw my comments on page 6 in yesterday’s Weekly Strategies, you can see I was looking for $17. We bought back 100 each at $17.89, 16.95, and 16.51 for a total gain of $16.02. I may have been a little early, since if that reversal holds we could see single digits again. It finished $15.99 -4.31 (21.23%).
There was good news for patients of Pancreatic Cancer as the FDA approved a drug from MRK and AZN (AstraZenaca) but the stocks which were both higher early finished to the downside with the market. Part of the issue was that the FDA recommendation occurred 2 weeks ago and both stocks had moved higher since then.
And, the HOMERUN OF THE DAY was Savara (SVRA) who was granted a “Breakthrough Therapy Designation” for Molgradex, for treatment of Autoimmune Pulmonary Alveolar Proteinosis. The stock has been around since 2004 and has been reversed twice, 1:25 in 2010, and 1:70 in 2017, giving it an adjusted high of $9,415 in 2006, fell from $11.38 to 2.62 in April of this year and had closed $1.73 on Friday and opened today $4.14, traded to $5.20 and finished $4.91 + $3.18 (183.82%) and has traded $6.25 in extended hours tonight. The last is $5.56 +3.83 or 221%.
BIOPHARMA: was LOWER with BIIB -4.08, ABBV -.68, REGN +.38, ISRG -6.56, MYL -.23, TEVA -.24, VRTX -2.00, BHC -.28, INCY -.34, ICPT -.29, LABU -2.61 and IBB $119.94 -1.62 (1.33%).
CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with TLRY -.57, CGC -.42, CRON -.25, GWPH +1.08, ACB unchanged, PYX +.68, APHA -.17, NBEV -.03, ACRGF -.72, CURLF +.15, KERN -.21 and MJ $16.21 -.49 (1.92%). This may be a good group for January trades after tax-selling.
DEFENSE: was MIXED with LMT -1.70, RTN -.77, GD -1.48, TXT +.13, UTX -.40, NOC +2.63, BWXT -.09, TDY +.55 and ITA $222.93 -.80 (.38%).
RETAIL was MIXED with M +.26, JWN -.24, KSS -.32, DDS +.85, JCP -.01, WMT -.19, TGT -.32, TJX +.30, KR +.30, RL -.83, UAA -.42, LULU +.63, TPR -.29, CPRI +.02 and XRT $45.93 -.31 (.67%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER across the board with AAPL +1.64 the only exception. GOOGL -15.84, AMZN -24.20, FB -3.59, NFLX -6.09, NVDA -4.87, TSLA -17.38(4.04%), BABA -2.47, BIDU -.16, BOX -.27, IBM -2.46, BA -3.45, CAT -.76 and XLK $91.38 -.53 (.58%).
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -.86, JPM -.49, BAC -.20, MS -.13, C -.07, PNC -.79, AIG -.07, TRV -.31, AXP -.89, and XLF $30.68 -.09 (.29%).
OIL, $61.68 + .04. Today’s action was a rally to $62.34 before settling back to just slightly higher. The stocks were LOWER with the profit taking in the general market and XLE was $59.78 -1.90 (3.08%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,518.60 +.50 after breaking out “of the box” earlier in the week, and has moved higher, and is now approaching the resistance around the $1,520 to $1,525 range. Today’s action was a short range “inside” day without any real direction.
BITCOIN: closed $7385 + 45. We broke to the upside but ran into a brick wall just under $8,000. I was very disappointed to see the break, although we are right back to the lower Bollinger Band. After having a GTC order @ $9.85 since we sold on 11/5, we finally got filled on the first 350 shares. I added 400 GBTC at $8.06 bringing the average down to $8.99. GBTC closed $8.45 -.13 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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How to apply Bollinger Bands to Binance 3 Minute Chart Bitcoin Scalping Strategy - Bollinger Bands ... Trading Tip #3: How To Use The Bollinger Bands - YouTube How to Trade Bitcoin with Bollinger Bands (and other cryptocurrencies too) // trading strategy Bollinger Band - 5 Min Expiry Trading M1 Charts

As we can observe in the previous Bitcoin chart, during sideways price action, Bollinger Bands serve as a pretty accurate dynamic support/resistance indicator, and the price barely exceeded the bands. Trading With Bollinger Bands To Find Overbought & Oversold Levels. Bollinger Bands are a good indicator to determine overbought and oversold levels on the charts. Bollinger Bands (BB) sind ein weit verbreitetes technisches Analyseinstrument, das von John Bollinger in den frühen 1980er Jahren entwickelt wurde. Bollinger Bands bestehen aus einem Band von drei Linien, die im Verhältnis zu den Wertpapierkursen gezeichnet werden. Die Linie in der Mitte ist normalerweise ein einfacher gleitender Durchschnitt (Simple Moving Average, SMA), der auf einen ... John Bollinger, who created this indicator, has emphasized how useful Bollinger Bands can be for bitcoin trading. As he wrote in his newsletter: “Bitcoin is a terrific vehicle for Bollinger Band trading. That shouldn’t come as a surprise as we have long known that Bollinger Bands are well suited for forex in general, and Bitcoin is really nothing more than a specialized form of forex ... This should give the Bitcoin trader some encouragement about the reliability of this indicator. Bollinger draws comparisons between Bitcoin and the FOREX market. Many traders have been using the bands to trade FOREX for a long time. Bollinger Bands plot the simple moving average, or SMA, of a security over a predefined period of time. A 21 ... The Bollinger Bands are nearly horizontal and the upper and lower bands provide dynamic resistance and support respectively. The Bollinger Bands are not to be used alone; it is more effective to combine it with other indicators to identify exit points from a trade. Oscillator indicators and volume are complements to the Bollinger Bands.

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How to apply Bollinger Bands to Binance

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