05-17 22:42 - 'I was looking for a way to actually use bitcoin to buy something, and came across this Purse service, when you can buy things from Amazon through Purse account with bitcoins! My first transaction was cleared today, s...' (app.purse.io) by /u/Maxzb removed from /r/Bitcoin within 0-7min
Putting $400M of Bitcoin on your company balance sheet
Also posted on my blog as usual. Read it there if you can, there are footnotes and inlined plots. A couple of months ago, MicroStrategy (MSTR) had a spare $400M of cash which it decided to shift to Bitcoin (BTC). Today we'll discuss in excrutiating detail why this is not a good idea. When a company has a pile of spare money it doesn't know what to do with, it'll normally do buybacks or start paying dividends. That gives the money back to the shareholders, and from an economic perspective the money can get better invested in other more promising companies. If you have a huge pile of of cash, you probably should be doing other things than leave it in a bank account to gather dust. However, this statement from MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor exists to make it clear he's buying into BTC for all the wrong reasons:
“This is not a speculation, nor is it a hedge. This was a deliberate corporate strategy to adopt a bitcoin standard.”
Let's unpack it and jump into the economics Bitcoin:
Is Bitcoin money?
No. Or rather BTC doesn't act as money and there's no serious future path for BTC to become a form of money. Let's go back to basics. There are 3 main economic problems money solves: 1. Medium of Exchange. Before money we had to barter, which led to the double coincidence of wants problem. When everyone accepts the same money you can buy something from someone even if they don't like the stuff you own. As a medium of exchange, BTC is not good. There are significant transaction fees and transaction waiting times built-in to BTC and these worsen the more popular BTC get. You can test BTC's usefulness as a medium of exchange for yourself right now: try to order a pizza or to buy a random item with BTC. How many additional hurdles do you have to go through? How many fewer options do you have than if you used a regular currency? How much overhead (time, fees) is there? 2. Unit of Account. A unit of account is what you compare the value of objects against. We denominate BTC in terms of how many USD they're worth, so BTC is a unit of account presently. We can say it's because of lack of adoption, but really it's also because the market value of BTC is so volatile. If I buy a $1000 table today or in 2017, it's roughly a $1000 table. We can't say that a 0.4BTC table was a 0.4BTC table in 2017. We'll expand on this in the next point: 3. Store of Value. When you create economic value, you don't want to be forced to use up the value you created right away. For instance, if I fix your washing machine and you pay me in avocados, I'd be annoyed. I'd have to consume my payment before it becomes brown, squishy and disgusting. Avocado fruit is not good money because avocadoes loses value very fast. On the other hand, well-run currencies like the USD, GBP, CAD, EUR, etc. all lose their value at a low and most importantly fairly predictible rate. Let's look at the chart of the USD against BTC While the dollar loses value at a predictible rate, BTC is all over the place, which is bad. One important use money is to write loan contracts. Loans are great. They let people spend now against their future potential earnings, so they can buy houses or start businesses without first saving up for a decade. Loans are good for the economy. If you want to sign something that says "I owe you this much for that much time" then you need to be able to roughly predict the value of the debt in at the point in time where it's due. Otherwise you'll have a hard time pricing the risk of the loan effectively. This means that you need to charge higher interests. The risk of making a loan in BTC needs to be priced into the interest of a BTC-denominated loan, which means much higher interest rates. High interests on loans are bad, because buying houses and starting businesses are good things.
BTC has a fixed supply, so these problems are built in
Some people think that going back to a standard where our money was denominated by a stock of gold (the Gold Standard) would solve economic problems. This is nonsense. Having control over supply of your currency is a good thing, as long as it's well run. See here Remember that what is desirable is low variance in the value, not the value itself. When there are wild fluctuations in value, it's hard for money to do its job well. Since the 1970s, the USD has been a fiat money with no intrinsic value. This means we control the supply of money. Let's look at a classic poorly drawn econ101 graph The market price for USD is where supply meets demand. The problem with a currency based on an item whose supply is fixed is that the price will necessarily fluctuate in response to changes in demand. Imagine, if you will, that a pandemic strikes and that the demand for currency takes a sharp drop. The US imports less, people don't buy anything anymore, etc. If you can't print money, you get deflation, which is worsens everything. On the other hand, if you can make the money printers go brrrr you can stabilize the price Having your currency be based on a fixed supply isn't just bad because in/deflation is hard to control. It's also a national security risk... The story of the guy who crashed gold prices in North Africa In the 1200s, Mansa Munsa, the emperor of the Mali, was rich and a devout Muslim and wanted everyone to know it. So he embarked on a pilgrimage to make it rain all the way to Mecca. He in fact made it rain so hard he increased the overall supply of gold and unintentionally crashed gold prices in Cairo by 20%, wreaking an economic havoc in North Africa that lasted a decade. This story is fun, the larger point that having your inflation be at the mercy of foreign nations is an undesirable attribute in any currency. The US likes to call some countries currency manipulators, but this problem would be serious under a gold standard.
Currencies are based on trust
Since the USD is based on nothing except the US government's word, how can we trust USD not to be mismanaged? The answer is that you can probably trust the fed until political stooges get put in place. Currently, the US's central bank managing the USD, the Federal Reserve (the Fed for friends & family), has administrative authority. The fed can say "no" to dumb requests from the president. People who have no idea what the fed does like to chant "audit the fed", but the fed is already one of the best audited US federal entities. The transcripts of all their meetings are out in the open. As is their balance sheet, what they plan to do and why. If the US should audit anything it's the Department of Defense which operates without any accounting at all. It's easy to see when a central bank will go rogue: it's when political yes-men are elected to the board. For example, before printing themselves into hyperinflation, the Venezuelan president appointed a sociologist who publicly stated “Inflation does not exist in real life” and instead is a made up capitalist lie. Note what happened mere months after his gaining control over the Venezuelan currency This is a key policy. One paper I really like, Sargent (1984) "The end of 4 big inflations" states:
The essential measures that ended hyperinflation in each of Germany,Austria, Hungary, and Poland were, first, the creation of an independentcentral bank that was legally committed to refuse the government'sdemand or additional unsecured credit and, second, a simultaneousalteration in the fiscal policy regime.
In english: *hyperinflation stops when the central bank can say "no" to the government." The US Fed, like other well good central banks, is run by a bunch of nerds. When it prints money, even as aggressively as it has it does so for good reasons. You can see why they started printing on March 15th as the COVID lockdowns started:
The Federal Reserve is prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals.
In english: We're going to keep printing and lowering rates until jobs are back and inflation is under control. If we print until the sun is blotted out, we'll print in the shade.
BTC is not gold
Gold is a good asset for doomsday-preppers. If society crashes, gold will still have value. How do we know that? Gold has held value throughout multiple historic catastrophes over thousands of years. It had value before and after the Bronze Age Collapse, the Fall of the Western Roman Empire and Gengis Khan being Gengis Khan. Even if you erased humanity and started over, the new humans would still find gold to be economically valuable. When Europeans d̶i̶s̶c̶o̶v̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ c̶o̶n̶q̶u̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ g̶e̶n̶o̶c̶i̶d̶e̶d̶ went to America, they found gold to be an important item over there too. This is about equivalent to finding humans on Alpha-Centauri and learning that they think gold is a good store of value as well. Some people are puzzled at this: we don't even use gold for much! But it has great properties: First, gold is hard to fake and impossible to manufacture. This makes it good to ascertain payment. Second, gold doesnt react to oxygen, so it doesn't rust or tarnish. So it keeps value over time unlike most other materials. Last, gold is pretty. This might sound frivolous, and you may not like it, but jewelry has actual value to humans. It's no coincidence if you look at a list of the wealthiest families, a large number of them trade in luxury goods. To paraphrase Veblen humans have a profound desire to signal social status, for the same reason peacocks have unwieldy tails. Gold is a great way to achieve that. On the other hand, BTC lacks all these attributes. Its value is largely based on common perception of value. There are a few fundamental drivers of demand:
Means of Exchange: if people seriously start using BTC to buy pizzas, then this creates a real demand for the currency to accomplish the short-term exchanges. As we saw previously, I'm not personally sold on this one and it's currently a negligible fraction of overall demand.
Criminal uses: Probably the largest inbuilt advantage of BTC is that it's anonymous, and so a great way to launder money. Hacker gangs use BTC to demand ransom on cryptolocker type attacks because it's a shared way for an honest company to pay and for the criminals to receive money without going to jail.
Apart from these, it's hard to argue that BTC will retain value throughout some sort of economic catastrophe.
BTC is really risky
One last statement from Michael Saylor I take offense to is this:
“We feel pretty confident that Bitcoin is less risky than holding cash, less risky than holding gold,” MicroStrategy CEO said in an interview
"BTC is less risky than holding cash or gold long term" is nonsense. We saw before that BTC is more volatile on face value, and that as long as the Fed isn't run by spider monkeys stacked in a trench coat, the inflation is likely to be within reasonable bounds. But on top of this, BTC has Abrupt downside risks that normal currencies don't. Let's imagine a few:
A critical software vulnerability is found in the BTC codebase, leading to a possible exploitation.
Xi Jinping decides he's had enough of rich people in China hiding their assets from him and bans BTC.
Some form of bank run takes hold for whatever reason. Because BTC wallets are uninsured, unlike regular banks, this compounds into a Black Tuesday style crash.
Blockchain solutions are fundamentally inefficient
Blockchain was a genius idea. I still marvel at the initial white paper which is a great mix of economics and computer science. That said, blockchain solutions make large tradeoffs in design because they assume almost no trust between parties. This leads to intentionally wasteful designs on a massive scale. The main problem is that all transactions have to be validated by expensive computational operations and double checked by multiple parties. This means waste:
BTC was estimated to use as much electricity as Belgium in 2019. It's hard to trace where the BTC mining comes from, but we can assume it has a huge carbon footprint.
A single transactions is necessarily expensive. A single transaction takes as much electricity as 800,000 VISA transactions, or watching 50,000 hours of youtube videos.
There is a large necessary tax on the transaction, since those checking the transaction extract a few BTC from it to be incentivized to do the work of checking it.
Many design problems can be mitigated by various improvements over BTC, but it remains that a simple database always works better than a blockchain if you can trust the parties to the transaction.
Can I use the old USD in the bank (lollars) to buy online?
Most banks have very low internet limits. We're talking about $15-$20 per month limit. It is expected that all banks decrease this limit to 0 soon. That being said, banks are not treating customers equally. You might have a better internet limit than other people. Call your bank's call center and ask about your internet limit.
Can I use my LBP card to pay online?
Banks stopped all fx transactions (changing from LBP to USD). So the answer to this question is 99% of the time no. That being said, banks are not treating customers equally. You might have a better internet limit than other people. Call your bank's call center and ask about your internet limit.
Amazon/Expedia/Steam/Other website is showing the items in LBP and the invoice and total are in LBP, can I use my LBP to pay it?
No. Amazon and other websites show their invoices in all currencies around the world depending on where you're opening the website from. They only accept USD. When you click to purchase, Amazon will attempt to bill your card in USD. Your bank will refuse to exchange from LBP to USD and the payment will be declined.
https://preview.redd.it/ibyzaxbvfnq51.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=3b030e7e9f0051d035ca702d125293ad0dd8f8f3 Autumn is always the rainy season. BetFury's rains pour out winnings, dividends, events and cool updates. If you've been with us the whole month, you probably know how many cool things happened at BetFury. If you have joined us recently you can be sure that we never sit still. The BetFury team is constantly working to make the platform as good and easy to use as possible. So that every Betfurian can enjoy the game and earn money! Watch what peaks Fury has reached in September!
Every day there are important events at BetFury and we want to share all these events and news with you. Any updates or creation of new games, awarding prizes to the winners of competitions - everything is done with love for you, Betfurians.
Betfurians filled their pockets with prizes from Weekly Events, Giveaways & Big Wins.
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The case against lengthening cycles and my strategy moving forward.
If we look over historical data on coinmarketcap: Bitcoin 2013 ATH occurred approximately December 04, 2013 at around $1,150.00 Bitcoin had an enormous wick down to below $180 on Jan 14, 2015, -85.4% from ATH, around 12.5 months after ATH. After recovery seemed guaranteed, Bitcoin had another enormous wick down on Aug 24, 2015 to just below $200.00, around 19 months after ATH. Bitcoin hit a second ATH almost exactly 4 years after the 2013 ATH, on Dec 17, 2017 at around $20,000. (100x from 2015 lows). The low was hit almost exactly a year later, around $3200.00 on December 15, 2018, 84% down from ATH. Now, this is where things get strange. I think a lot of whales were trying to frontrun the bull cycle, so they bought up a lot causing bitcoin to spike to 12k, dump, recover, and the second higher low occurred due to the covid black swan, some exchanges wicking as low as $3800 on Mar 12, 2020, about 27 months after ATH. If not for the 2019 front running, I believe this low would have been inevitable and would have occurred around the same time in the cycle as the 2013 cycle. Now that things have calmed down, let's see where we are in the cycle vs where we were in 2013. On October 12, 2016, BTC was $637.78, 55.5% of the way back to its all time high. It slightly broke its all time high on Jan 4, 2017 before being strongly rejected, then it broke it again a month later before being rejected and finally on April 6th, 2017 it broke $1150 for the last time before the wild 20x to new, historical all time highs. On october 12, 2020, btc is $11,659.00, exactly 58% of the way back to its all time high. We are at exactly the same distance from ATH as we were in 2016. Aside from outliers such as 2019 front running and covid crash, the cycle is exactly the same and if you were to trace the 2013 cycle on top of the 2017 cycle, we would be at about the same point. I strongly believe we will be close to 20k at some point around December-January, get rejected for a few months, and then move onto new and historical highs. I hedl throughout the 2017 bear market as I was introduced to crypto in mid 2017, just before subsequently making and losing more money than ive ever seen in my life. I've been DCAing into alts and BTC for 3 years. If I've learned one thing, its the further you can see into the past, the further you can see into the future. BTC cycles are not lengthening. My plan is to cash out 80% of my holdings, staggered at the peak sometime between November and February of 2021-2022 and then buy back in exactly 1 year later. I will keep 20% in BTC, XMR, ETH only in case of a black swan event such as hyperinflation while keeping my cash (taxes paid) on the sidelines waiting for the inevitable low around 1 year after the next all time high. I am a believer of the 4 year cycle and there is nowhere near enough money in crypto to prevent it from happening again, at least one more cycle. Tell me your thoughts in the comments. Who else has this strategy? If we time it right, we could all retire young. I have more money in crypto than ive ever had in my life and I just pretend it doesnt exist. Crypto is the only way I see in this crazy world with fractional reserve banking and money printing on a whim for young people to have the opportunity to get out of a life of wage slaving and enjoy the prosperity our ancestors enjoyed. Good luck to all!
Microsoft patent 2020-060606 linking human brain to crypto payment system
Microsoft filed a patent 2020-060606 on June 20, 2019 for the link between the human body and the crypto payment system. It is a cryptocurrency mining system that uses human pulses such as brain waves and body heat to perform online tasks such as using search engines, chatbots, and reading ads. "A user can solve the arithmetically difficult problem unconsciously," says the patent. In fact, this is a very brief description of a brain computer interface, which can read and write electromagnetic signals from the brain at such a finely meshed level that the brain literally becomes a biocomputer in a network. To understand that, please watch the video below and read on below. This is necessary so that you understand the current technological state of affairs. Steve Hoffman - Brain Hacking & MindTech - Produced by DingDingTV How cryptocurrency works The aim is that we are collectively hung in a hyve mind and it seems that what with crpyo-currency like Bitcoin still had to be done on energy-guzzling mining servers, can now be filled in by the “human bio-computer”. The unique thing about blockchain payment systems was that as soon as you took a so-called wallet into the network, your computer formed a block in the network, where your computer receives a kind of calculation program that calculates the security key of a coin. All computers on the network must then come up with the same key as confirmation. If the entire network sees a transaction of a coin, all those keys are checked and if one is different, the transaction is illegal and rejected. That would create unhackable security. The problem, however, is that Bitcoin mining requires a lot of computing power and that requires electricity. That's why Bitcoin mining ended up being one of the most energy-guzzling industries in the world. The Microsoft patent seems to aim at making this blockchain principle, which is not only very energy-guzzling, but also puts a heavy burden on the internet in terms of bandwidth (after all, all computers in the chain must always be checked for positive encryption), superfluous to make. Simply put: Microsoft wants to use the human brain as a block in the blockchain. The 5G network will provide sufficient bandwidth to realize this. Link digital ID, vaccination ID and social credit system: The coronavirus pandemic provides the perfect alibi for the introduction of such a system. In concrete terms, this means that a score of your behavior (expressed in points) will initially be kept in the cloud. If you stick to the rules, you can take public transport or plane. If you don't follow the rules, your score will go down. The upcoming social distancing apps are a precursor to such a behavioral scoring system. After all, if you do not keep enough distance from potential infections, you have to quarantine at home. We also see China taking the lead there. Watch the video below and then read on. Wuhan coronavirus covid-19 totalitarian UN propaganda? Although Bill Gates officially retired from Microsoft's board this year, we can guess who the big driving force behind patent 2020-060606 is. Of course, I need not point out to the attentive reader that we recognize here the Biblical number of the mark of the beast from the Bible book of Revelation: 666. It states that the time will come when no one will be able to buy or sell without to bear 'the beast'. This under the statement that this number is six hundred and sixty-six. The same Bill Gates is behind the ID2020 initiative that wants to develop a digital ID for vaccination registration. If you combine such a digital ID hallmark with a digital passport (ID) and with patent 2020-060606, then you have completely enslaved people. Revelation 13: 16-18 16: And it causes it to give a mark to all, small and great, and rich and poor, and free and servants, on their right hand or on their foreheads; 17: And that no one should buy or sell except he who has that mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name. 18: Here is wisdom: let him that have understanding count the number of the beast; for the number of a man is, and his number is six hundred sixty and six. The "Official Gazette of the Kingdom of the Netherlands" announced on March 31, 2020 (“coincidentally”) change in law that allows a digital ID. Translated: Kingdom Act of 6 March 2020 amending the Passport Act in connection with the introduction of electronic identification with a public identification means and the expansion of the basic register of travel documents. We Willem-Alexander, by the grace of God, King of the Netherlands, Prince of Oranje-Nassau, etc. etc. etc. All who will see or hear it read, salute! do to know: Thus We have considered that it is desirable to amend the Passport Act in connection with the introduction of electronic identification with a public means and the extension of the basic register of travel documents; The consequences: So if we don't wake up in masses now and discover that we are witnessing a Psychological Operation that fully complies with the master script, then there is no escape. Then we cannot buy or sell anything if we do not meet all the requirements of the state. And to all, it really means all. Making a minor offense once has immediate consequences. Not cooperating with the vaccination obligation (think Bill Gates) will definitely mean the end of being able to travel and participate in society at all. You should consider the most basic things such as being able to buy food and drink. We must step out of our programming and know that we are sovereign. Please read the article from the official journal above again. In it you see that you can fully rely on your consciousness sovereignty. You are sovereign by nature and no law can bind you to anything. It says "We Willem-Alexander, by the grace of God". Now let him prove "that grace of God". Every law is signed by the king by the grace of God. There is no evidence whatsoever of this and so the law does not apply. The only problem is the fact that social systems have built up around that grace of God, to which many swear allegiance. Do we sit back and relax until we are swallowed up by the system of "the internet of things" by the grace of God, or do we activate ourselves to concrete things? Concrete matters means that we have to switch from passive to active and discover who we are in potential and in essence.
Disclaimer:This isnotfinancial advice. It's only my personal opinion. You can agree or disagree. Stay civil. It seems clear that we're in a new Bitcoin rally. With Bitcoin ready to attack its latest ATH, the question arises: Should we buy Bitcoin? My answer is: It depends. If we buy a Bitcoin now and it reaches its current all time high, we'd be talking about a return of less than double. That's very little considering that this is crypto and crypto means sick profits. If the good predictions came true and it reached $100,000, we would be talking about something less than x10 of profit. This is a lot. Not bad at all. But being crypto and being Bitcoin, I still find it a bit poor considering the tremendous effort that Bitcoin would need to make. One thing is clear, if you want an insane profit, the moon, the lambo, you have to go for altcoins and use Bitcoin as a volatility catalyst. That is, when Bitcoin goes up and drags the whole market up. If you're looking for the dream of becoming a millionaire, you have to assume it's too late to buy Bitcoin, unless you're willing to invest a lot of money or you're convinced it can reach 500k or even 1 million. Which I personally see as unlikely, at least in the short term. Bitcoin, however, can be used as a store of value. Even if some people disagree with this, the truth is that Bitcoin is nearly 12 years old and has only been more expensive than today during a few days in all this time. This is what a store of value is supposed to be. And it's not even mainstream yet. So what altcoins to buy? When I think of altcoins I am thinking of tokens with less than 1B market capitalization. Tokens with a great growth potential. Of course, the smaller their market capitalization the more price potential, but also the risk is higher. Personally, I think the risk, during the Bitcoin bull cycle, is a bit overestimated, since the whole market goes up. It's very difficult for the lowcap token you've bought not to appreciate by at least a X10. I speak from the experience of having lived the 2017 bull market. It is very important to choose tokens with the lowest possible supply. In a frantic market, where Bitcoin is spreading collective hysteria throughout the market, the utility of the token takes a back seat. It's the scarcity of that token what will determine its price potential. And the exposure. And the exchanges the token is being traded on, or potential big exchanges that it will be added. Lesson that I learned. I have explained this a few times already on reddit. I once had 18 Bitcoin. Today it would be $234,000. I didn't sell them to make a profit, I've always been convinced that Bitcoin was going to reach 6 digits and I'm still convinced of that right now. I lost 18 Bitcoin for trying to tame the market. It's impossible to tame the market. An idea as seemingly simple as buying cheap and selling expensive unwittingly changes into buying expensive and selling cheap. Cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile. There is no comparison to anything else. No one is mentally prepared to see Bitcoin fall by 50% after buying, or to see Bitcoin increase in value by 50% after selling. The stress that these situations put on our weak minds is what makes us fail. Taming the market is exactly the same as gambling. You're betting that Bitcoin will go down and therefore you're selling. Or you bet that Bitcoin will go up and therefore you buy. You can get it right once, but sooner or later you'll fail and ruin everything. It's a lottery. Everybody in Reddit likes to show off when they make a successful trade, but only a few post when they fuck it up. In 2017 I had around 2500 tokens of a shitcoin called XLM (Solaris). A very scarce token I bought very cheap. If I recall correctly, I sold them all at 20something cents and placed a buy order at 15 cents. The shit went down to 16 or 17 cents… then skyrocketed to $40 in December. My buy order was never executed. There's no way to predict the future, even with all those lines that people who want to be famous do at the expense of your naivety, the market analysts. Just buy and hold. Don't trade. Don't risk losing. Don't play like this is a casino, this is an investment and investments take time. I was one of the lucky ones who bought XRP for less than a penny. I find it very funny when people make jokes about the price of XRP. A lot of people are in the red with XRP and think that XRP is a shitty coin. However, there is something they don't understand. They are not objectively evaluating XRP because they bought it at a very specific time. I have never been in the red with XRP because I bought before the 2017 jump. They and I simply see reality from different perspectives. The token is the same for us, our point of view is not. They call a token that has yielded a fantastic X100 from my investment a shitcoin. It's a matter of perspective. I want to tell you that for years, people who bought Bitcoin at $1000 were suffering tremendous losses, as Bitcoin dropped to $200 after that. Today everyone would kill to be able to buy a single Bitcoin at $1000. PERSPECTIVE. The casino is a short term game. The investments are LONG-TERM projects. The 2017 bull run took the whole market to a new level and never went back. Are we going to see a new level in 2021?
You will see that this exchange has three sections. The first allows us to exchange MOONS (on the Rinkeby blockchain) to XMOONS (on the XDai blockchain, where Gas fees are paid in XDai rather than Eth). The second section allows us to exchange XMOONS for XDai. The third section allows us to exchange XDai for good old fashioned Ethereum (on the actual Ethereum blockchain).
Before we get started with any exchanging, we need to configure metamask a bit.
First up we are going to make Metamask show the MOONS that we have. To do this, change the network from 'Main Ethereum Network' to 'Rinkeby Test Network' at the top dropdown menu. Now click 'Add Token' and custom token. Now input the following:
Next we want to convert these xMoon's into xDai, however, we have to have some xDai in there in the first place to pay for the gas (remember that this xDai blockchain uses xDai to pay for gas not Eth!). To do this, buy some Dai (20 USD should do) in your favourite way (normal exchange, DeFi, etc.) and transfer it to your Metamask account Eth account (ON THE MAIN ETHEREUM BLOCKCHAIN, DON'T USE RINKEBY!). Also transfer around 10 USD worth of Eth to your metamask to cover any gas fees on the Main Ethereum Blockchain side of things.
Great, now while keeping Metamask on the Main Ethereum Blockchain, click DAI to xDAI and convert around10-20 USD.
Once this xDai has shown up (again could take a while), switch metamask back over to xDai blockchain and click xMOON to xDai (this should be fairly quick)
Now click xDai to Dai (might take a while again, don't panic like I did!)
You should now have Dai on the Ethereum blockchain held in your metamask (which you can see once you switch metamask back over to Main Ethereum)
Feel free now to do with the Dai whatever you wish! Send to an exchange and swap to BTC or Eth, keep a hold of in metamask etc etc
Please feel free to offer comments and corrections in the comments :) Edit 1: Typo fix!
Philly's weekly watchlist [Way longer than I wanted it to be but it's for 5 days]
Remember this is for 5 days. My daily watchlist changes well.... daily and is posted 8/16 WEEKLY WATCHLIST [P.S. Only enter positions you feel the most comfortable with. Your money is your soldier only send him into the battle you think you'll win. Some of these I have taken positions. Some I am looking to take positions. I've posted how many shares I own of what multiple times ] PENNIES [💎-Long time gold][⁉️-Could go both ways][🚀-I think this is gonna shoot up][🔥-This imo is gonna be a fire stock to make money off of just dont get dumped on][⚠️-Already ran a bit be careful][👀-Watching this one closely]
🚀💸PENNYS💸🚀 $SINT - Wednesday huge webinar. Mass support at $1.90-$2. Slight resistance at $2.50🔥🚀💎👀 $AIM - Still believe this is a $5 ticker in the future. Chart looks to be squeezing upward in a cup and handle fashion. MACD setup quite well.Godly support at $1.95. Decent support at $2.35/$2.54. Resistances $2.70-74/ $2.85/$3.02/$3.15. 💎👀 $BKYI - RUMOR MSFT Buyout August 19th! Had a single buyer with a 200k share bid at $0.75. Support seems to be $0.63/$0.68/$0.71. Seems to be rough resistance at the $0.77-$0.78 range . After that could run $0.80/$0.93/$1.06🔥🚀 $CHEK - UNGODLY oversold. 100% Shareholders at a loss! Revese split? Has until December. 52 week low. Expecting a HARD short squeeze here. Exploring US Partnership. 🔥👀 $IZEA - AUG 18th Webinar. Tiktok partnership RUMOR?!?! 80% Shareholders breakeven or at a loss! Insane Support at $1.02. Decent support $1.28/$1.35. Small resistance at $1.47 than $1.60/$1.92/$2. $SXTC - Earning Aug 25th $JFU - Bitcoin play. Ungodly Oversold. Sitting right on support $1.90. Could break up to $2.13/$2.38/$2.60. LOOKING FOR A HEAVY REVERSAL HERE🔥🚀 $MYT - Offering should close 8/19. $0.30. IMO $0.28-$0.33 is a good entry. This should be an easy 5-10% runner. $CJJD - 5Year average $1.60. SMASHED EARNINGS. Warrants at $2.00. HEAVY support at $1.20-$1.29. Resistances to break are $1.39/$1.50. This should close up to $1.70-$1.80 in the upcoming weeks!💎🚀 $DLPN - EARNINGS Aug 17th AH. I have been playing this for months. $0.86-$0.91 buyin. Sell at $1-$1.08Only scary thing is they might split due to compliance💎🚀👀 $LPCN - FDA Approval Aug 28th $HX - Honestly this is kind of a gamble but I'm keeping my eyes on it. 2h4hr Looking for a reversal. Watching this heavy for a pop off! $SOLO - US MANUFACTURING Location PR by END OF YEAR. 4hr MACD is setup PERFECTLY. Has a nice gap up to $3-$3.10 to fill. Support is $2.33/ Resistances arnt until $3.10/$3.19/$3.42. 💎🔥👀 $ONTX - Made compliance not long ago. HUGE news in the next 35 days. SUPER oversold on the 4hr. This should MINIMAL gap up to $1. Supports were $1/$1.11/$1.15. Resistances were $1.20/$1.25 /$1.35 💎👀 $MARK - Looking to setup golden triangle on 4hr. MACD and RSI perfect! Super beat down on earnings?! Already looking to curl upward. I'd expect $1.60/$1.75/$1.90/$2.40. $TRVN - $2.30 Offering. Imo $2.20-$2.40 GREAT PRICE. Aug 19th-Aug 20th virtual chat! Really good drug pipeline. Support around the $2.20 area. Once offering closes I expect this to gap up to $2.50-2.75 minimal. 💎🚀👀 $AYTU - HUGE INSTUITIONAL BUYS 8/14. Super oversold earning September 24th. Might take an early position here. Insane support $1.25-$1.28. Looking for this to run to $1.40-$1.49/$1.55/$1.65. $DGLY - MASSIVELY oversold on earnings. Looking for a reversal around the $1.55/$1.85 area. 90% of shareholders break even or at a loss!! $APEX - Golden triangle approaching on daily. Support $0.55/$0.65. Once $0.70 resistance is broken this should gap up to $0.77-$0.79/ $0.94/ $1.01/ $1.10🔥🚀👀 $IDEX - What can I say. Alfs back on twitter dropping bombs. GODLY support at $1.22-$1.25/ Decent support at $1.30. Resistances at $1.46/$1.52/$1.62 $GECC - Monthly dividend 1.60% Yield. Golden Triangle approaching. Huge gap to $7 to fill.💎👀 $PSEC - Monthly Dividend yield 1.17%. Golden Triangle approaching. Decent gap to $6.50 to fill.💎👀 💰HONORABLE MENTIONS💰 : $UAVS $MARA/RIOT- Anytime Bitcoin is above 11.6k 💰Non-Pennys💰 $TFFP - Entered worldwide commercial liscensing with Union Therapeutics. 99% Shareholders at a profit![scary] . Support is hella far away around $6/$9. This has very little resistances and could free run to $14+ 🔥🚀👀 $GOLD - Warran Buffet need I say more🔥🚀👀 $NRP - 4.18% Dividend upcoming 💎👀 $JMIA - Super beatdown. End of year this should be a $20-$30 ticker. 4hr MACD starting up again👀 $DSS - If this hits $6 I'm going super hella bullish in. Looking for a gap to $9/$10/$12/$14 $BABA - Upcoming earning. Trump talking about Chinese company bans LOL. If this gets beat down I'm going in HEAVY!👀 $SPAQ - Tons of pre-orders aka free revenue without advertising. This should take off like NKLA did eventually!GODLY support at $10.60.Decent support at the $12 area. Resistances sit at $12.50/$13/$14. This could run up QUICK! FISKER dropping the PR bombs on twitter like a MAD MAN! Newfilter.io [USE THIS SITE, LOVE THIS SITE, BEFRIEND THIS SITE] It gives live news [1-5mins delayed]. I refresh the FDA approval constantly and the latest news pretty often
Eth 2.0 vs Polkadot and other musings by a fundamental investor
Spent about two hours on this post and I decided it would help the community if I made it more visible. Comment was made as a response to this
I’m trying to avoid falling into a maximalist mindset over time. This isn’t a 100% ETH question, but I’m trying to stay educated about emerging tech. Can someone help me see the downsides of diversifying into DOTs? I know Polkadot is more centralized, VC backed, and generally against our ethos here. On chain governance might introduce some unknown risks. What else am I missing? I see a bunch of posts about how Ethereum and Polkadot can thrive together, but are they not both L1 competitors?
What else am I missing?
The upsides. Most of the guys responding to you here are full Eth maxis who drank the Parity is bad koolaid. They are married to their investment and basically emotional / tribal in an area where you should have a cool head. Sure, you might get more upvotes on Reddit if you do and say what the crowd wants, but do you want upvotes and fleeting validation or do you want returns on your investment? Do you want to be these guys or do you want to be the shareholder making bank off of those guys? Disclaimer: I'm both an Eth whale and a Dot whale, and have been in crypto for close to a decade now. I originally bought ether sub $10 after researching it for at least a thousand hours. Rode to $1500 and down to $60. Iron hands - my intent has always been to reconsider my Eth position after proof of stake is out. I invested in the 2017 Dot public sale with the plan of flipping profits back to Eth but keeping Dots looks like the right short and long term play now. I am not a trader, I just take a deep tech dive every couple of years and invest in fundamentals. Now as for your concerns:
I know Polkadot is more centralized
The sad truth is that the market doesn't really care about this. At all. There is no real statistic to show at what point a coin is "decentralized" or "too centralized". For example, bitcoin has been completely taken over by Chinese mining farms for about five years now. Last I checked, they control above 85% of the hashing power, they just spread it among different mining pools to make it look decentralized. They have had the ability to fake or block transactions for all this time but it has never been in their best interest to do so: messing with bitcoin in that way would crash its price, therefore their bitcoin holdings, their mining equipment, and their company stock (some of them worth billions) would evaporate. So they won't do it due to economics, but not because they can't. That is the major point I want to get across; originally Bitcoin couldn't be messed with because it was decentralized, but now Bitcoin is centralized but it's still not messed with due to economics. It is basically ChinaCoin at this point, but the market doesn't care, and it still enjoys over 50% of the total crypto market cap. So how does this relate to Polkadot? Well fortunately most chains - Ethereum included - are working towards proof of stake. This is obviously better for the environment, but it also has a massive benefit for token holders. If a hostile party wanted to take over a proof of stake chain they'd have to buy up a massive share of the network. The moment they force through a malicious transaction a proof of stake blockchain has the option to fork them off. It would be messy for a few days, but by the end of the week the hostile party would have a large amount of now worthless tokens, and the proof of stake community would have moved on to a version of the blockchain where the hostile party's tokens have been slashed to zero. So not only does the market not care about centralization (Bitcoin example), but proof of stake makes token holders even safer. That being said, Polkadot's "centralization" is not that far off to Ethereum. The Web3 foundation kept 30% of the Dots while the Ethereum Foundation kept 17%. There are whales in Polkadot but Ethereum has them too - 40% of all genesis Ether went to 100 wallets, and many suspect that the original Ethereum ICO was sybiled to make it look more popular and decentralized than it really was. But you don't really care about that do you? Neither do I. Whales are a fact of life.
VCs are part of the crypto game now. There is no way to get rid of them, and there is no real reason why you should want to get rid of them. They put their capital at risk (same as you and me) and seek returns on their investment (same as you and me). They are both in Polkadot and Ethereum, and have been for years now. I have no issue with them as long as they don't play around with insider information, but that is another topic. To be honest, I would be worried if VCs did not endorse chains I'm researching, but maybe that's because my investing style isn't chasing hype and buying SUSHI style tokens from anonymous (at the time) developers. That's just playing hot potato. But hey, some people are good at that. As to the amount of wallets that participated in the Polkadot ICO: a little known fact is that more individual wallets participated in Polkadot's ICO than Ethereum's, even though Polkadot never marketed their ICO rounds due to regulatory reasons.
generally against our ethos here
Kool aid. Some guy that works(ed?) at Parity (who employs what, 200+ people?) correctly said that Ethereum is losing its tech lead and that offended the Ethereum hivemind. Oh no. So controversial. I'm so personally hurt by that. Some guy that has been working for free on Ethereum basically forever correctly said that Polkadot is taking the blockchain tech crown. Do we A) Reflect on why he said that? or B) Rally the mob to chase him off?
Also Parity locked their funds (and about 500+ other wallets not owned by them) and proposed a solution to recover them. When the community voted no they backed off and did not fork the chain, even if they had the influence to do so. For some reason this subreddit hates them for that, even if Parity did the 100% moral thing to do. Remember, 500+ other teams or people had their funds locked, so Parity was morally bound to try its best to recover them. Its just lame drama to be honest. Nothing to do with ethos, everything to do with emotional tribalism. Now for the missing upsides (I'll also respond to random fragments scattered in the thread):
This isn’t a 100% ETH question, but I’m trying to stay educated about emerging tech.
A good quick intro to Eth's tech vs Polkadot's tech can be found on this thread, especially this reply. That thread is basically mandatory reading if you care about your investment. Eth 2.0's features will not really kick in for end users until about 2023. That means every dapp (except DeFI, where the fees make sense due to returns and is leading the fee market) who built on Eth's layer 1 are dead for three years. Remember the trading card games... Gods Unchained? How many players do you think are going to buy and sell cards when the transaction fee is worth more than the cards? All that development is now practically worthless until it can migrate to its own shard. This story repeats for hundreds of other dapp teams who's projects are now priced out for three years. So now they either have to migrate to a one of the many unpopulated L2 options (which have their own list of problems and risks, but that's another topic) or they look for another platform, preferably one interoperable with Ethereum. Hence Polkadot's massive growth in developer activity. If you check out https://polkaproject.com/ you'll see 205 projects listed at the time of this post. About a week ago they had 202 listed. That means about one team migrated from another tech stack to build on Polkadot every two days, and trust me, many more will come in when parachains are finally activated, and it will be a complete no brainer when Polkadot 2.0 is released. Another huge upside for Polkadot is the Initial Parachain Offerings. Polkadot's version of ICOs. The biggest difference is that you can vote for parachains using your Dots to bind them to the relay chain, and you get some of the parachain's tokens in exchange. After a certain amount of time you get your Dots back. The tokenomics here are impressive: Dots are locked (reduced supply) instead of sold (sell pressure) and you still earn your staking rewards. There's no risk of scammers running away with your Ether and the governance mechanism allows for the community to defund incompetent devs who did not deliver what was promised.
Wouldn’t an ETH shard on Polkadot gain a bunch of scaling benefits that we won’t see natively for a couple years?
Yes. That is correct. Both Edgeware and Moonbeam are EVM compatible. And if the original dapp teams don't migrate their projects someone else will fork them, exactly like SUSHI did to Uniswap, and how Acala is doing to MakerDao.
Although realistically Ethereum has a 5 yr headstart and devs haven't slowed down at all
Just because it's "EVM Compatible" doesn't mean you can just plug Ethereum into Polkadot or vica versa, it just means they both understand Ethereum bytecode and you can potentially copy/paste contracts from Ethereum to Polkadot, but you'd still need to add a "bridge" between the 2 chains, so it adds additional complexity and extra steps compared to using any of the existing L2 scaling solutions
That only applies of you are thinking from an Eth maximalist perspective. But if you think from Polkadot's side, why would you need to use the bridge back to Ethereum at all? Everything will be seamless, cheaper, and quicker once the ecosystem starts to flourish.
I see a bunch of posts about how Ethereum and Polkadot can thrive together, but are they not both L1 competitors?
They are competitors. Both have their strategies, and both have their strengths (tech vs time on the market) but they are clearly competing in my eyes. Which is a good thing, Apple and Samsung competing in the cell phone market just leads to more innovation for consumers. You can still invest in both if you like. Edit - link to post and the rest of the conversation: https://www.reddit.com/ethfinance/comments/iooew6/daily_general_discussion_september_8_2020/g4h5yyq/ Edit 2 - one day later PolkaProject count is 210. Devs are getting the hint :)
The only time im let out of the house is for school, uni, family trip.Now, I still live with them because they enroll me in a uni near our house. I got accepted to one of the best uni in my country and they told me to reject it; it wasnt because they cant afford my uni fee but rather because they dont want me to leave home. I tried a scholarship as well to persuade them but even when all costs are paid for they still refused to let me go; 17 when I started uni and need parents acceptance letter. Also, they never gave me pocket money because they think its unnecessary for me when I can just ask them for things. The first time they gave me money was now-lunch money. In a month, I get around $100 because they said that I only need to buy lunch. I always try to save around $40 to a paypal account so i can have the chance to move out (ii never go out and have friends, so they dont see the point of checking it) . Usually i end up buying bitcoins to make it even more untraceable because im scared that theyll found out and get mad. Sometimes, I starve myself for lunch because I can eat dinner at home and this causes me to lose weight (i thought was a good thing; they always say im fat). Seeing im becoming thinner they would bring me to a buffet and force me to eat till i feel like im about to burts (they dont know im starving myself to save money; they thought i was stressed). On campus, I have socializing problems (i was enrolled in the same school from kindergarten-high school, since most people knows me from childhood they didnt think it was weird for me to skip activities and not socialize much). If they know theyll probably make me dropout of uni. they arent against the idea of me dropping out because as I quote from them they like it best when Im at home and they can monitor me(they keep telling me that if i want to withdraw myself from society its fine). They even put a 360 camera in my bedroom. Sometimes the things they do make me feel like they want me to be a doll to just sit at home and be a decoration. The reason why I finally talked back was because both my parents are gaslighting me about accidentally ordering me the wrong food. I literally have no problem with it because the food itself isnt bad, so I was acting fine but then they kept on trying to get me upset. And I guess the build up of not being able to say anything snap today, so I said ”yeah you get the wrong food so annoying I dont even want to eat this” and now theyre mad and give me an hour long lecture on why im such a disappointment and that should not talk back. I see myself as TA and feel so bad but I really am so tired of how controlling they are in every aspect of my life (i dont have friends that i can consult about this because they said friends arent necessary in life and only that i only need them). So yeah, AITA? - it would also be nice if you guys can recommend me online jobs that have a payout to paypal. Thank you.
9/28 Daily Watchlist for you needs that STILL arnt on the Teoegram
10/28 DAILY WATCHLIST [P.S. Only enter positions you feel the most comfortable with. Your money is your soldier only send him into the battle you think you'll win. Some of these I have taken positions. Some I am looking to take positions. I've posted how many shares I own of what multiple times ] ⭐BIG weeks for earnings coming up +Election news! Be prepared for crazy volatility!⭐ 🔑KEY🔑 [💎-Long time gold][⁉️-Could go both ways][🚀-I think this is gonna shoot up][🔥-This is gonna be a fire stock to make money off of just dont get dumped on][⚠️-Already ran a bit be careful][👀-Watching this one closely][⭐- Huge Catalyst or info] PRIMARY FOCUSES: $MGM⭐ $LLNW $CLSK $CZR⭐⭐ $SPAQ⭐⭐ Notable Earnings I would like to watch are marked below with a ⭐ 🚀💸PENNYS💸🚀 $VOCC - Fatty Dividend coming on the 29th. 5% yield which is MASSIVE!🔥🚀👀 $LLNW - Massively OVERSOLD from earnings. Approaching 52wk low. 4hr GRAVESTONE DOJI⚰. Huge gap back up to $6.40 to fill! Looks to have bottomed around $3.82👀🔥🚀💎 $HMHC - ⭐Earnings Oct 28th.👀🔥🚀 $UEC - Barcoding Uranium mine. Its only a matter of time until Algo's pick up on this and it runs heavily. Daily MACD🐻 4hDaily RSI oversold! 👀🔥🚀 $ADMP - ⭐FDA Nov 15th.FDA Likey Approved. MACD cant make up its mind. This is an easy swing into FDA week. Buy in around $0.74-$0.79 and sell for $0.83-.86 Support: $0.70/$0.74 Gap up to $0.86/ $1.02/$1.14 after that the world may never know🔥🚀👀💎 $SESN - ⭐New news should be coming anyday now.This didnt get the pump it deserves based on the news. Gonna try and play the PAYient game here. Support $1.01/$1.10 Resistances $1.38/ $1.44/$1.50🔥🚀👀💎 $PRTY - So OVERSOLD I saw it at the local Thriftshop. Imagine being a clown and thinking Halloween is canceled! This will get the Halloween pump and dump Bananza! Support $1.85 Resistance $2.62/$2.82🔥🚀👀 $SOLO - Quarterly MACD ⭐4hr GOLDEN CROSS⭐4hr MACD BREACHING🐮 Support: $2.44 Resistances: $2.64/$2.74/ $3.20/$3.34⭐US Manufacturing Location PR by November⭐🔥👀💎 $GRIL - I'm still long here. Just finished an offering like a month ago so money is fine as well. This will see $5 by next summer and $2.50 by EoY. You heard it here first! This is a steal! ⭐4hr GOLDEN CROSS coming⭐. Daily MACD 🐮 4hr MACD🐻 Support $1.40/$1.73 Resistance ??? [LONG]🔥🚀👀⚠️💎 💰Honorable Mentions💰 $IDEX - Some PR dropping. I suspect earnings is gonna make this run up heavily [Nov 6th] ⭐Earning Nov 9th. Looking at $1/$2 Lotto calls for this. Could payout 50-300% $RIOT/$MARA -⭐ ONLY if Bitcoin continues to run up.⭐ 💰Non-Pennys💰 $CZR - The Diamond hand special. This is a come back KING! Anything under $50 is long term gold. Vegas as a whole took a harsh sell off today. This SHOULD and WILL gap back above $50. ⭐Earnings Nov 5th. 4h Daily RSI MASSIVELY OVERSOLD. Hasnt been this low since beginning of Sept. In 3-5years this will be $80-100👀🔥🚀💎 $VVPR - ⭐$8.50 Offering closed. 4hr RSI OVERSOLD! PT Updated to $40.4hr MACD turning 🐮Support $6.50 Should gap up to $9-$11 when the offering closes sometime in the next week.97% of Shareholders at a loss!💎🔥🚀👀 $JMIA - ⭐HUGE $BABA rumor coming with this ⭐4hdaily SUPER OVERBOUGHT. Huge cup and handle [were at the top of the cup expect pullback]Earnings Nov 12th⭐ Amazon of Europe and Africa! Support $10.20/$12.13/$16/ $17.45 Resistance ??? Huge gap to $18/$20/$22 to fill👀🔥🚀⚠️⚠️⚠️💎 $KIRK - Essentially WayfaiOverstock. Dec 3rd Earnings should be a blowout. MACD 🐻/🐮 Looks like a cup and handle. Handle should be almost finished. Support $9.70/$10.15. Resistance $11.95👀🔥🚀⚠️💎 $MGM -Earnings Oct 29th ⭐.⭐GOLDEN CROSS on 4hr⭐4hr RSI OVERSOLD! 4hDaily MACD🐻 VERY strong support $18.08/ $20.54. Resistance $23.50. I suspect this will be the last earning to have worry about. This should EASILY be $30-40 in the next 3-5years with the expanding to Japan + BETMGM👀🔥💎 $PLUG - Alt energy is a thing of the future. 4hr MACD 🐮 Daily MACD undecided. Support $14.33 Resistance $15.55 [LONG]🔥🚀👀💎 $CLSK- ⭐Acquisition Rumor ⭐ MASSIVELY OVERSOLD Support $7.50ish MACD turning 🐮 This should gap back to $10.91+ when the offering closes. ☠SABBY IS IN THIS STOCK☠👀🔥🚀 $SPAQ - [SPAC]4hDaily RSI is MASSIVELY OVERSOLD I saw it at the WELFARE OFFICE⭐ ⭐MERGER VOTE TODAY! If you own shares VOTE! ⭐ Resistances $14.70/$15/ $15.55/ $16.05. 99.98% of Shareholders at a LOSS currently! I cant see this falling much more quite frankly. Fisker is a PR machine.🔥🚀👀💎 🤑Notable Earnings🤑 OCTOBER $SAVE - 28th ?? $DIN - 28th PM [Straddles or Calls] $SNE - 28th PM [Condors or Calls] $BA - 28th PM [Calls] $UPS - 28th PM [Straddles or Puts] $GE - 28th PM [Calls] $FVRR - 28th PM [Puts] $NDLS - 28th AH [Calls] $F - 28th AH [Calls]⭐ $PINS - 28th AH [Straddles] $TDOC - 28th AH[Condors]⭐ $ETSY - 28th AH [Condors] $GRUB - 28th AH [Puts] $GILD - 28th AH [Calls] $V - $28th AH [Calls] $GPOR - 29th ??⭐ $SUNW - 29th ??⭐ $HJLI - 29th ??⭐ $SHOP - 29th PM [Straddles?] $FLWS - 29th PM [Calls] ⭐ $RL - 29th PM [Straddles or Calls]⭐ $PENN - 29th PM [Calls]⭐ $OSTK - 29th PM [Straddles] $SPOT - 29th PM [Straddles] $BE - 29th AH [Straddle or Puts] $WWE - 29th AH [Straddles or Puts] $ATVI - 29th AH [Puts] ⭐ $TWTR - 29th AH [Puts] ⭐ $AAPL - 29th AH [Calls] ⭐ $AMZN - 29th AH [Calls] $GOOG - 29th AH [Condors] $GOOGL - 29th AH [Condors] $FB - 29th AH [Straddles or Puts] $SPAQ - 30th ?? $ABBV - 30th PM [Straddles or Calls] $XOM - 30th PM [Puts] $HON - 30th PM [Calls?] $UA - 30th PM [Straddles] $MGI - 30th PM [Condors] 🔥🚀🌾Gold/Silver🌾🚀🔥 $AGC - 2x silver. Aka silver -1% AGC -2%. This is a day or swing trade. Depreciates $SLV - Long term silver hold $JNUG - 2x Gold. Same as AGC but for gold $NUGT/$GLD - Long term gold holds 🔮BET AGAINST THE MARKET🔮 $SPXS - 3X Inverse of SPY [The overall market] Spy +1% SPXS -3%. Spy -3% SPXS +9% [top 500 companies]🐻🐻 $SQQQ - Same as SPXS except top 100 companies🐻🐻 $VXX - Fear index/Volatility Index. This goes up with market feaunsurity. USUALLY inverses $SPY ⚖UPCOMING FDA INFO⚖ $SPPI - DELAYED $KALA - Oct 30th $MRK - Oct 30th $SUPN - Nov 8th ⭐ $ADMP - Nov 15th⭐ $ALKS - Nov 15th $MYL - Nov 16th $EIGR - Nov 20th $LQDA - Nov 24th $BCRX - Dec 3rd 🙏 I would like to just thank all the supporters once again. Between your constant generosity and the overall communities kind words none of this would be possible. If you decide to donate please shoot me a PM so I can thank you! I dont care if its $1 or $1000 I'd still like to give you a thanks!🙏 ❤🖤💙💚🤎💛🧡💜🤍 My Links: ⭐Cashapp: $Hamstackz⭐ ⭐Venmo: $JDH3703 ⭐ ⭐Paypal: http://paypal.me/PhillyDiamondhands ⭐ Again! Thank you all for being apart of this great journey!
DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir). Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance. Inspiration Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out. A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing. Data Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors. Google Search Trends \"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020 \"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months \"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020 \"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months Brokerage data Robinhood SPY holders \"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement TD Ameritrade Excerpt Media cnbc.com Alexa rank CNBC viewership & rankings wallstreetbets comments / day investing comments / day Analysis What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well. However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so. SPX daily Rationale Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market. Sentiment & Magic Crayons As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality. From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities. SPY daily Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data. There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend. This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level. VIX Daily Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so. Putting Everything Together Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180. tldr; we've reached the top EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested. 5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level 5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing. 5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts 5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play. 5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30. 5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit. 5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30. 5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again 5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p 5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend. 5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there. 5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
10/18 Weekly Watchlist Been on the telegram for almost 2 days boys
10/18 WEEKLY WATCHLIST [P.S. Only enter positions you feel the most comfortable with. Your money is your soldier only send him into the battle you think you'll win. Some of these I have taken positions. Some I am looking to take positions. I've posted how many shares I own of what multiple times ] ⭐BIG weeks for earnings coming up +Election news! Be prepared for crazy volatility!⭐ 🔑KEY🔑 [💎-Long time gold][⁉️-Could go both ways][🚀-I think this is gonna shoot up][🔥-This imo is gonna be a fire stock to make money off of just dont get dumped on][⚠️-Already ran a bit be careful][👀-Watching this one closely][⭐- Huge Catalyst or info] PRIMARY FOCUSES: $MGM⭐ $ADMP $SESN $JMIA ⭐ $GRIL $FSI $LCA $ETTX⭐ $CRBP $NOK 🚀💸PENNYS💸🚀 $ETTX - ⭐Solid pipeline. Big insider buys. Presentations Oct 22st-25th⭐ Huge gap to fill to $2.50/$2.75/ $3.05. Support $2.05👀🔥🚀⚠️ $CRBP - ⭐200k in shares bought on the buzzer! Either shorts really covered hard or SOMEONE knows something. Support $1.07👀🔥🚀 $FSI - SMASHED earnings. SUPER SMALL float. Already ran a bit but I can see $4 coming potentially. HIGH RISK👀🔥🚀⚠️ $HMHC - Earnings Oct 28th. $2.50 Calls I may grab some. Looks like a medium risk high reward play👀🔥🚀 $UEC - Barcoding Uranium mine. Its only a matter of time until Algo's pick up on this and it runs heavily. 4hr RSI approaching oversold! Daily/4hr MACD🐮/🐻 👀🔥🚀 $ADMP - Cup & Handle 🐮 ⭐FDA Nov 15th.FDA Likey Approved. ⭐GOLDEN CROSS on the 4hr⭐ 4hr MACD are🐮Support: $0.74/ $0.87 Gap up to $1.02/$1.14 after that the world may never know🔥🚀👀⚠️💎 $SESN - ⭐4th Q Bio news ANYDAY now. ⭐4hr MACD 🐮 Support $1.01/$1.16 Resistances $1.38/ $1.44/$1.50🔥🚀👀💎 $PRTY - Halloween is coming up. 4hr MACD🐮 This is a constant pump and dump stock. Was $5-7 all last year. Support $1.85/$2.15/ $2.40 Resistance $2.62/$2.82🔥 $SOLO - Quarterly MACD 🐮⭐ 4hr GOLDEN CROSS⭐Support: $2.58/$2.90 Resistances: $3.20/$3.34⭐US Manufacturing Location PR by November⭐🔥👀💎⚠️ $GRIL - Once the volume picks up on this its gonna FLY! This company is undervalued in my eyes. Newish emerging fast "healthy" food. Great concept with little to no competition⭐4hr GOLDEN CROSS coming⭐.Daily / 4hr MACD🐮 Support $1.40/$1.54 Resistance $1.67/$1.72 ⭐New investor email for guidance I truthfully see $5-7 by next year on this.[LONG]🔥🚀👀💎 💰Honorable Mentions💰 $NOK - ⭐Earnings Oct 29th⭐4g contract for the moon QUITE LITERALLY⭐Big 5g provider globally. Honestly think this is being slept one and should move up by EoY to $5+.Daily/4hr MACD Daily🐮 💎 $NAK - Mine has been waiting for approval for 10+ years. Trump tweeting about it. MASSIVE float [BAD]. If somehow it gets approved this is gonna jet to $4-6💎⁉️ $IDEX - Some PR dropping. I suspect earnings is gonna make this run up heavily [Nov 6th] ⭐Earning Nov 9th $RIOT/$MARA -⭐ ONLY if Bitcoin continues to run up.⭐ 💰Non-Pennys💰 $VVPR - ⭐$8.50 offering. PT Updated to $40.Honestly $8-9 entry seems great. Should gap up to $11 when the offering closes sometime in the next week.💎👀 $LCA - [SPAC] Merging with the Golden Nugget.⭐ 100k block buy at buzzer [$1.5m]. Descending triangle broke out🐮 Support $13.60 Resistance $14.74/$15.30 gap to $16.50. This could very easily hit $25-30 EoY👀🔥🚀💎 $JMIA - 4hdaily OVERBOUGHT. Huge cup and handle. I expect a pull back before re-entering. Earnings Nov 12th⭐ Amazon of Europe and Africa! Support $10.20/$12.13 Resistance $15.67. Huge gap to $17/$20 to fill👀🔥🚀⚠️💎 $MGM - One of my classic picks has RETURNED! Earnings Oct 29th⭐.⭐GOLDEN CROSS on 4hr and DAILY TODAY⭐4hr MACD 🐮VERY strong support $18.08/$20.54. Resistance $21.71/$21.92/$22.25. I suspect this will be the last earning to have worry about. 1h4hr HAMMER DOJI🔨This should EASILY be $30-40 in the next 3-5years with the expanding to Japan + BETMGM👀🔥🚀💎 $ACI - ⭐ Declared they will providing a dividend. Also won a bid for new locations. Earnings Oct 20th.⭐ I suspect a blowout. This should be a SOLID long term growth hold!🔥🚀 $PLUG - Alt energy is a thing of the future! Dont expect the lowest level support to he broken. 4hr RSI approaching Oversold ! Daily MACD 🐻Support $15.70/ $16.43[Load zone][LONG]🔥🚀👀💎 $MCAC - [SPAC] ⭐PLAYBOY⭐ is going public through them. Sherly off the name.🔥💎🚀 $CLSK - Just like PLUG the uptrend is insane. ⭐ 4hr GOLDEN CROSS ⭐Almost NO DEBT! Support $7.98/$9.55. This should gap back to $10.91+ when the offering closes. ☠SABBY IS IN THIS STOCK☠👀🔥🚀 $PLAY - I'm bullish as a bull can be for next Q earnings! Support $13.86/ $14.55 /$15.90. Breaks $16.33 it flys⭐4hr GOLDEN CROSS coming⭐Daily MACD BREACHING 🐮HUGE Gap up potential to $19/$20. I'd put money on earnings being beaten December🔥 $SPAQ - [SPAC]Cup and handle. Handle looks finished⭐MERGER VOTE END OF OCT⭐4hr GOLDEN CROSS⭐RSI Approaching Oversold! see $25 EoY. Support $11.90/ $12.99 Resistances $15/ $15.55/ $16.05. Fisker is a PR machine.🔥🚀👀💎 🤑Notable Earnings🤑 OCTOBER $TUP Estimated 20th📈[Calls] $LOGI Estimated 20th📉[Puts] $LRN - 20th PM/AH?📈[Calls]⭐ $TXN - 20th PM/AH?📈[Calls] $SNAP - 20th PM📉[Puts or Strangle] $HOG - 20th PM⁉️ $NEE - 20th PM 📉[Puts] $LMT - 20th PM📉[Puts] $RTX - 20th PM📈[Calls] $SKX - 20th AH 📉[Puts or Strangle] $NFLX - 20th AH📈[Puts]⭐ $SIX - 20th PM/AH?📈[Calls or Strangles] $BA - 21st PM📈[Calls]⭐ $SAVE - 21st PM/AH?📈[Calls] $ORLY - 21st PM/AH?📈[Calls] $MSFT - 21st AH📈[Calls] $EBAY - 21st AH📉[Puts or Strangles] $CMG 21st AH📈[Calls or Strangles] $KO Estimated 21st📈[Calls]⭐ $AAL - 22nd PM📈[Calls or Strangles]⭐ $T - 22nd PM📈[Calls] $INTC 22nd AH📈[Calls]⭐ 🔥🚀🌾Gold/Silver🌾🚀🔥 $AGC - 2x silver. Aka silver -1% AGC -2%. This is a day or swing trade. Depreciates $SLV - Long term silver hold $JNUG - 2x Gold. Same as AGC but for gold $NUGT/$GLD - Long term gold holds 🔮BET AGAINST THE MARKET🔮 $SPXS - 3X Inverse of SPY [The overall market] Spy +1% SPXS -3%. Spy -3% SPXS +9% [top 500 companies]🐻🐻 $SQQQ - Same as SPXS except top 100 companies🐻🐻 $VXX - Fear index/Volatility Index. This goes up with market feaunsurity. USUALLY inverses $SPY ⚖UPCOMING FDA INFO⚖ $SPPI - Oct 24th $KALA - Oct 30th $MRK - Oct 30th $SUPN - Nov 8th ⭐ $ADMP - Nov 15th⭐ $ALKS - Nov 15th $MYL - Nov 16th $EIGR - Nov 20th $LQDA - Nov 24th 🙏 None of this would be possible without the love and support of you guys! I appreciate each and EVERYONE of you! This group will ALWAYS remain free but if you'd like to donate for my work here ya go. Donations do help an exponential amount but are not require!💚[If you do PLEASE let me know in case I miss it and so I can THANK YOU! 🙏 ❤🖤💙💚🤎💛🧡💜🤍 My Links: ⭐Cashapp: $Hamstackz⭐ ⭐Venmo: $JDH3703⭐ ⭐paypal.me/PhillyDiamondhands⭐ Thanks you once again. I couldn't do this without EVERY single one of yours constant support
[OWL WATCH] Waiting for "IOTA TIME" 20; Hans's re-defined directions for DLT
Disclaimer: This is my editing, so there could be some misunderstandings... -------------------------------------------- wellwho오늘 오후 4:50 u/BenRoyce****how far is society2 from having something clickable powered by IOTA? Ben Royce오늘 오후 4:51 demo of basic tech late sep/ early oct. MVP early 2021 --------------------------------------------------- HusQy Colored coins are the most misunderstood upcoming feature of the IOTA protocol. A lot of people see them just as a competitor to ERC-20 tokens on ETH and therefore a way of tokenizing things on IOTA, but they are much more important because they enable "consensus on data". Bob All this stuff already works on neblio but decentralized and scaling to 3500 tps HusQy Neblio has 8 mb blocks with 30 seconds blocktime.This is a throughput of 8 mb / 30 seconds = 267 kb per second.Transactions are 401+ bytes which means that throughput is 267 kb / 401 bytes = 665 TPS. IOTA is faster, feeless and will get even faster with the next update ... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- HusQy Which DLT would be more secure? One that is collaboratively validated by the economic actors of the world (coporations, companies, foundations, states, people) or one that is validated by an anonymous group of wealthy crypto holders? HusQy The problem with current DLTs is that we use protection mechanisms like Proof of Work and Proof of Stake that are inherently hard to shard. The more shards you have, the more you have to distribute your hashing power and your stake and the less secure the system becomes. HusQy Real world identities (i.e. all the big economic actors) however could shard into as many shards as necessary without making the system less secure. Todays DLTs waste trust in the same way as PoW wastes energy. HusQy Is a secure money worth anything if you can't trust the economic actors that you would buy stuff from? If you buy a car from Volkswagen and they just beat you up and throw you out of the shop after you payed then a secure money won't be useful either :P HusQy **I believe that if you want to make DLT work and be successful then we need to ultimately incorporate things like trust in entities into the technology.**Examples likes wirecard show that trusting a single company is problematic buttrusting the economy as a whole should be at ... **... least as secure as todays DLTs.**And as soon as you add sharding it will be orders of magnitude more secure.DLT has failed to deliver because people have tried to build a system in vacuum that completely ignores things that already exist and that you can leverage on. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HusQy Blockchain is a bit like people sitting in a room, trying to communicate through BINGO sheets. While they talk, they write down some of the things that have been said and as soon as one screams BINGO! he hands around his sheet to inform everybody about what has been said. HusQy If you think that this is the most efficient form of communication for people sitting in the same room and the answer to scalability is to make bigger BINGO sheets or to allow people to solve the puzzle faster then you will most probably never understand what IOTA is working on. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HusQy **Blockchain does not work with too many equally weighted validators.****If 400 validators produce a validating statement (block) at the same time then only one can survive as part of a longest chain.**IOTA is all about collaborative validation. **Another problem of blockchain is that every transaction gets sent twice through the network. Once from the nodes to the miners and a 2nd time from the miners as part of a block.**Blockchain will therefore always only be able to use 50% of the network throughput. And****the last problem is that you can not arbitrarily decrease the time between blocks as it breaks down if the time between blocks gets smaller than the average network delay. The idle time between blocks is precious time that could be used for processing transactions. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- HusQy I am not talking about a system with a fixed number of validators but one that is completely open and permissionless where any new company can just spin up a node and take part in the network. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ HusQy Proof of Work and Proof of Stake are both centralizing sybil-protection mechanism. I don't think that Satoshi wanted 14 mining pools to run the network. And "economic clustering" was always the "end game" of IOTA. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- HusQy **Using Proof of Stake is not trustless. Proof of Stake means you trust the richest people and hope that they approve your transactions. The rich are getting richer (through your fees) and you are getting more and more dependant on them.**Is that your vision of the future? ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- HusQy Please read again exactly what I wrote. I have not spoken of introducing governance by large companies, nor have I said that IOTA should be permissioned. We aim for a network with millions or even billions of nodes. HusQy That can't work at all with a permissioned ledger - who should then drop off all these devices or authorize them to participate in the network? My key message was the following: Proof of Work and Proof of Stake will always be if you split them up via sharding ... HusQy ... less secure because you simply need fewer coins or less hash power to have the majority of the votes in a shard. This is not the case with trust in society and the economy. When all companies in the world jointly secure a DLT ... HusQy ... then these companies could install any number of servers in any number of shards without compromising security, because "trust" does not become less just because they operate several servers. First of all, that is a fact and nothing else. HusQy Proof of Work and Proof of Stake are contrary to the assumption of many not "trustless" but follow the maxim: "In the greed of miners we trust!" The basic assumption that the miners do not destroy the system that generates income for them is fundamental here for the ... HusQy ... security of every DLT. I think a similar assumption would still be correct for the economy as a whole: The companies of the world (and not just the big ones) would not destroy the system with which their customers pay them. In this respect, a system would be ... HusQy ... which is validated by society and the economy as a whole probably just as "safely" as a system which is validated by a few anonymous miners. Why a small elite of miners should be better validators than any human and ... HusQy ... To be honest, companies in this world do not open up to me. As already written in my other thread, safe money does not bring you anything if you have to assume that Volkswagen will beat you up and throw you out of the store after you ... HusQy ... paid for a car. The thoughts I discussed say nothing about the immediate future of IOTA (we use for Coordicide mana) but rather speak of a world where DLT has already become an integral part of our lives and we ... HusQy ... a corresponding number of companies, non-profit organizations and people have used DLT and where such a system could be implemented. The point here is not to create a governance solution that in any way influences the development of technology ... HusQy ... or have to give nodes their OK first, but about developing a system that enables people to freely choose the validators they trust. For example, you can also declare your grandma to be a validator when you install your node or your ... HusQy ... local supermarket. Economic relationships in the real world usually form a close-knit network and it doesn't really matter who you follow as long as the majority is honest. I also don't understand your criticism of censorship, because something like that in IOTA ... HusQy ... is almost impossible. Each transaction confirms two other transactions which is growing exponentially. If someone wanted to ignore a transaction, he would have to ignore an exponential number of other transactions after a very short time. In contrast to blockchain ... HusQy ... validators in IOTA do not decide what is included in the ledger, but only decide which of several double spends should be confirmed. Honest transactions are confirmed simply by having other transactions reference them ... HusQy ... and the "validators" are not even asked. As for the "dust problem", this is indeed something that is a bigger problem for IOTA than for other DLTs because we have no fees, but it is also not an unsolvable problem. Bitcoin initially has a ... HusQy Solved similar problem by declaring outputs with a minimum amount of 5430 satoshis as invalid (github.com/Bitcoin/Bitcoi…). A similar solution where an address must contain a minimum amount is also conceivable for IOTA and we are discussing ... HusQy ... several possibilities (including compressing dust using cryptographic methods). Contrary to your assumption, checking such a minimum amount is not slow but just as fast as checking a normal transaction. And mine ... HusQy ... In my opinion this is no problem at all for IOTA's use case. The important thing is that you can send small amounts, but after IOTA is feeless it is also okay to expect the recipients to regularly send their payments on a ... HusQy ... merge address. The wallets already do this automatically (sweeping) and for machines it is no problem to automate this process. So far this was not a problem because the TPS were limited but with the increased TPS throughput of ... HusQy ... Chrysalis it becomes relevant and appropriate solutions are discussed and then implemented accordingly. I think that was the most important thing first and if you have further questions just write :) HusQy And to be very clear! I really appreciate you and your questions and don't see this as an attack at all! People who see such questions as inappropriate criticism should really ask whether they are still objective. I have little time at the moment because ... HusQy ... my girlfriend is on tour and has to take care of our daughter, but as soon as she is back we can discuss these things in a video. I think that the concept of including the "real world" in the concepts of DLT is really exciting and ... HusQy ... that would certainly be exciting to discuss in a joint video. But again, that's more of a vision than a specific plan for the immediate future. This would not work with blockchain anyway but IOTA would be compatible so why not think about such things. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- HusQy All good my big one :P But actually not that much has changed. There has always been the concept of "economic clustering" which is basically based on similar ideas. We are just now able to implement things like this for the first time. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HusQy Exactly. It would mean that addresses "cost" something but I would rather pay a few cents than fees for each transaction. And you can "take" this minimum amount with you every time you change to a new address. HusQy All good my big one :P But actually not that much has changed. There has always been the concept of "economic clustering" which is basically based on similar ideas. We are just now able to implement things like this for the first time. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Relax오늘 오전 1:17 Btw. Hans (sorry for interrupting this convo) but what make people say that IOTA is going the permissioned way because of your latest tweets? I don't get why some people are now forecasting that... Is it because of missing specs or do they just don't get the whole idea? Hans Moog [IF]오늘 오전 1:20 its bullshitu/Relaxanidentity based system would still be open and permissionless where everybody can choose the actors that they deem trustworthy themselves but thats anyway just sth that would be applicable with more adoption [오전 1:20] for now we use mana as a predecessor to an actual reputation system Sissors오늘 오전 1:31 If everybody has to choose actors they deem trustworthy, is it still permissionless? Probably will become a bit a semantic discussion, but still Hans Moog [IF]오늘 오전 1:34 Of course its permissionless you can follow your grandma if you want to :p Sissors오늘 오전 1:36 Well sure you can, but you will need to follow something which has a majority of the voting power in the network. Nice that you follow your grandma, but if others dont, her opinion (or well her nodes opinion) is completely irrelevant Hans Moog [IF]오늘 오전 1:37 You would ideally follow the people that are trustworthy rather than your local drug dealers yeah Sissors오늘 오전 1:38 And tbh, sure if you do it like that is easy. If you just make the users responsible for only connection to trustworthy nodes Hans Moog [IF]오늘 오전 1:38 And if your grandma follows her supermarket and some other people she deems trustworthy then thats fine as well [오전 1:38] + you dont have just 1 actor that you follow Sissors오늘 오전 1:38 No, you got a large list, since yo uwant to follow those which actually matter. So you jsut download a standard list from the internet Hans Moog [IF]오늘 오전 1:39 You can do that [오전 1:39] Is bitcoin permissionless? Should we both try to become miners? [오전 1:41] I mean miners that actually matter and not find a block every 10 trillion years 📷 [오전 1:42] If you would want to become a validator then you would need to build up trust among other people - but anybody can still run a node and issue transactions unlike in hashgraph where you are not able to run your own nodes(수정됨) [오전 1:48] Proof of Stake is also not trustless - it just has a builtin mechanism that downloads the trusted people from the blockchain itself (the richest dudes) Sissors오늘 오전 1:52 I think most agree it would be perfect if every person had one vote. Which is pr oblematic to implement of course. But I really wonder if the solution is to just let users decide who to trust. At the very least I expect a quite centralized network Hans Moog [IF]오늘 오전 1:53 of course even a trust based system would to a certain degree be centralized as not every person is equally trustworthy as for example a big cooperation [오전 1:53] but I think its gonna be less centralized than PoS or PoW [오전 1:53] but anyway its sth for "after coordicide" [오전 1:54] there are not enough trusted entities that are using DLT, yet to make such a system work reasonably well [오전 1:54] I think the reason why blockchain has not really started to look into these kind of concepts is because blockchain doesnt work with too many equally weighted validators [오전 1:56] I believe that DLT is only going to take over the world if it is actually "better" than existing systems and with better I mean cheaper, more secure and faster and PoS and PoW will have a very hard time to deliver that [오전 1:56] especially if you consider that its not only going to settle value transfers Relax오늘 오전 1:57 I like this clear statements, it makes it really clear that DLT is still in its infancy Hans Moog [IF]오늘 오전 1:57 currently bank transfers are order of magnitude cheaper than BTC or ETH transactions Hans Moog [IF]오늘 오전 1:57 and we you think that people will adopt it just because its crypto then I think we are mistaken [오전 1:57] The tech needs to actually solve a problem [오전 1:57] and tbh. currently people use PayPal and other companies to settle their payments [오전 1:58] having a group of the top 500 companies run such a service together is already much better(수정됨) [오전 1:58] especially if its fast and feeless [오전 2:02] and the more people use it, the more decentralized it actually becomes [오전 2:02] because you have more trustworthy entities to choose of Evaldas [IF]오늘 오전 2:08 "in the greed of miners we trust"
Summary: Everyone knows that when you give your assets to someone else, they always keep them safe. If this is true for individuals, it is certainly true for businesses. Custodians always tell the truth and manage funds properly. They won't have any interest in taking the assets as an exchange operator would. Auditors tell the truth and can't be misled. That's because organizations that are regulated are incapable of lying and don't make mistakes. First, some background. Here is a summary of how custodians make us more secure: Previously, we might give Alice our crypto assets to hold. There were risks:
Alice might take the assets and disappear.
Alice might spend the assets and pretend that she still has them (fractional model).
Alice might store the assets insecurely and they'll get stolen.
Alice might give the assets to someone else by mistake or by force.
Alice might lose access to the assets.
But "no worries", Alice has a custodian named Bob. Bob is dressed in a nice suit. He knows some politicians. And he drives a Porsche. "So you have nothing to worry about!". And look at all the benefits we get:
Alice can't take the assets and disappear (unless she asks Bob or never gives them to Bob).
Alice can't spend the assets and pretend that she still has them. (Unless she didn't give them to Bob or asks him for them.)
Alice can't store the assets insecurely so they get stolen. (After all - she doesn't have any control over the withdrawal process from any of Bob's systems, right?)
Alice can't give the assets to someone else by mistake or by force. (Bob will stop her, right Bob?)
Alice can't lose access to the funds. (She'll always be present, sane, and remember all secrets, right?)
See - all problems are solved! All we have to worry about now is:
Bob might take the assets and disappear.
Bob might spend the assets and pretend that he still has them (fractional model).
Bob might store the assets insecurely and they'll get stolen.
Bob might give the assets to someone else by mistake or by force.
Bob might lose access to the assets.
It's pretty simple. Before we had to trust Alice. Now we only have to trust Alice, Bob, and all the ways in which they communicate. Just think of how much more secure we are! "On top of that", Bob assures us, "we're using a special wallet structure". Bob shows Alice a diagram. "We've broken the balance up and store it in lots of smaller wallets. That way", he assures her, "a thief can't take it all at once". And he points to a historic case where a large sum was taken "because it was stored in a single wallet... how stupid". "Very early on, we used to have all the crypto in one wallet", he said, "and then one Christmas a hacker came and took it all. We call him the Grinch. Now we individually wrap each crypto and stick it under a binary search tree. The Grinch has never been back since." "As well", Bob continues, "even if someone were to get in, we've got insurance. It covers all thefts and even coercion, collusion, and misplaced keys - only subject to the policy terms and conditions." And with that, he pulls out a phone-book sized contract and slams it on the desk with a thud. "Yep", he continues, "we're paying top dollar for one of the best policies in the country!" "Can I read it?' Alice asks. "Sure," Bob says, "just as soon as our legal team is done with it. They're almost through the first chapter." He pauses, then continues. "And can you believe that sales guy Mike? He has the same year Porsche as me. I mean, what are the odds?" "Do you use multi-sig?", Alice asks. "Absolutely!" Bob replies. "All our engineers are fully trained in multi-sig. Whenever we want to set up a new wallet, we generate 2 separate keys in an air-gapped process and store them in this proprietary system here. Look, it even requires the biometric signature from one of our team members to initiate any withdrawal." He demonstrates by pressing his thumb into the display. "We use a third-party cloud validation API to match the thumbprint and authorize each withdrawal. The keys are also backed up daily to an off-site third-party." "Wow that's really impressive," Alice says, "but what if we need access for a withdrawal outside of office hours?" "Well that's no issue", Bob says, "just send us an email, call, or text message and we always have someone on staff to help out. Just another part of our strong commitment to all our customers!" "What about Proof of Reserve?", Alice asks. "Of course", Bob replies, "though rather than publish any blockchain addresses or signed transaction, for privacy we just do a SHA256 refactoring of the inverse hash modulus for each UTXO nonce and combine the smart contract coefficient consensus in our hyperledger lightning node. But it's really simple to use." He pushes a button and a large green checkmark appears on a screen. "See - the algorithm ran through and reserves are proven." "Wow", Alice says, "you really know your stuff! And that is easy to use! What about fiat balances?" "Yeah, we have an auditor too", Bob replies, "Been using him for a long time so we have quite a strong relationship going! We have special books we give him every year and he's very efficient! Checks the fiat, crypto, and everything all at once!" "We used to have a nice offline multi-sig setup we've been using without issue for the past 5 years, but I think we'll move all our funds over to your facility," Alice says. "Awesome", Bob replies, "Thanks so much! This is perfect timing too - my Porsche got a dent on it this morning. We have the paperwork right over here." "Great!", Alice replies. And with that, Alice gets out her pen and Bob gets the contract. "Don't worry", he says, "you can take your crypto-assets back anytime you like - just subject to our cancellation policy. Our annual management fees are also super low and we don't adjust them often". How many holes have to exist for your funds to get stolen? Just one. Why are we taking a powerful offline multi-sig setup, widely used globally in hundreds of different/lacking regulatory environments with 0 breaches to date, and circumventing it by a demonstrably weak third party layer? And paying a great expense to do so? If you go through the list of breaches in the past 2 years to highly credible organizations, you go through the list of major corporate frauds (only the ones we know about), you go through the list of all the times platforms have lost funds, you go through the list of times and ways that people have lost their crypto from identity theft, hot wallet exploits, extortion, etc... and then you go through this custodian with a fine-tooth comb and truly believe they have value to add far beyond what you could, sticking your funds in a wallet (or set of wallets) they control exclusively is the absolute worst possible way to take advantage of that security. The best way to add security for crypto-assets is to make a stronger multi-sig. With one custodian, what you are doing is giving them your cryptocurrency and hoping they're honest, competent, and flawlessly secure. It's no different than storing it on a really secure exchange. Maybe the insurance will cover you. Didn't work for Bitpay in 2015. Didn't work for Yapizon in 2017. Insurance has never paid a claim in the entire history of cryptocurrency. But maybe you'll get lucky. Maybe your exact scenario will buck the trend and be what they're willing to cover. After the large deductible and hopefully without a long and expensive court battle. And you want to advertise this increase in risk, the lapse of judgement, an accident waiting to happen, as though it's some kind of benefit to customers ("Free institutional-grade storage for your digital assets.")? And then some people are writing to the OSC that custodians should be mandatory for all funds on every exchange platform? That this somehow will make Canadians as a whole more secure or better protected compared with standard air-gapped multi-sig? On what planet? Most of the problems in Canada stemmed from one thing - a lack of transparency. If Canadians had known what a joke Quadriga was - it wouldn't have grown to lose $400m from hard-working Canadians from coast to coast to coast. And Gerald Cotten would be in jail, not wherever he is now (at best, rotting peacefully). EZ-BTC and mister Dave Smilie would have been a tiny little scam to his friends, not a multi-million dollar fraud. Einstein would have got their act together or been shut down BEFORE losing millions and millions more in people's funds generously donated to criminals. MapleChange wouldn't have even been a thing. And maybe we'd know a little more about CoinTradeNewNote - like how much was lost in there. Almost all of the major losses with cryptocurrency exchanges involve deception with unbacked funds. So it's great to see transparency reports from BitBuy and ShakePay where someone independently verified the backing. The only thing we don't have is:
ANY CERTAINTY BALANCES WEREN'T EXCLUDED. Quadriga's largest account was $70m. 80% of funds are in 20% of accounts (Pareto principle). All it takes is excluding a few really large accounts - and nobody's the wiser. A fractional platform can easily pass any audit this way.
ANY VISIBILITY WHATSOEVER INTO THE CUSTODIANS. BitBuy put out their report before moving all the funds to their custodian and ShakePay apparently can't even tell us who the custodian is. That's pretty important considering that basically all of the funds are now stored there.
ANY IDEA ABOUT THE OTHER EXCHANGES. In order for this to be effective, it has to be the norm. It needs to be "unusual" not to know. If obscurity is the norm, then it's super easy for people like Gerald Cotten and Dave Smilie to blend right in.
It's not complicated to validate cryptocurrency assets. They need to exist, they need to be spendable, and they need to cover the total balances. There are plenty of credible people and firms across the country that have the capacity to reasonably perform this validation. Having more frequent checks by different, independent, parties who publish transparent reports is far more valuable than an annual check by a single "more credible/official" party who does the exact same basic checks and may or may not publish anything. Here's an example set of requirements that could be mandated:
First report within 1 month of launching, another within 3 months, and further reports at minimum every 6 months thereafter.
No auditor can be repeated within a 12 month period.
All reports must be public, identifying the auditor and the full methodology used.
All auditors must be independent of the firm being audited with no conflict of interest.
Reports must include the percentage of each asset backed, and how it's backed.
The auditor publishes a hash list, which lists a hash of each customer's information and balances that were included. Hash is one-way encryption so privacy is fully preserved. Every customer can use this to have 100% confidence they were included.
If we want more extensive requirements on audits, these should scale upward based on the total assets at risk on the platform, and whether the platform has loaned their assets out.
There are ways to structure audits such that neither crypto assets nor customer information are ever put at risk, and both can still be properly validated and publicly verifiable. There are also ways to structure audits such that they are completely reasonable for small platforms and don't inhibit innovation in any way. By making the process as reasonable as possible, we can completely eliminate any reason/excuse that an honest platform would have for not being audited. That is arguable far more important than any incremental improvement we might get from mandating "the best of the best" accountants. Right now we have nothing mandated and tons of Canadians using offshore exchanges with no oversight whatsoever. Transparency does not prove crypto assets are safe. CoinTradeNewNote, Flexcoin ($600k), and Canadian Bitcoins ($100k) are examples where crypto-assets were breached from platforms in Canada. All of them were online wallets and used no multi-sig as far as any records show. This is consistent with what we see globally - air-gapped multi-sig wallets have an impeccable record, while other schemes tend to suffer breach after breach. We don't actually know how much CoinTrader lost because there was no visibility. Rather than publishing details of what happened, the co-founder of CoinTrader silently moved on to found another platform - the "most trusted way to buy and sell crypto" - a site that has no information whatsoever (that I could find) on the storage practices and a FAQ advising that “[t]rading cryptocurrency is completely safe” and that having your own wallet is “entirely up to you! You can certainly keep cryptocurrency, or fiat, or both, on the app.” Doesn't sound like much was learned here, which is really sad to see. It's not that complicated or unreasonable to set up a proper hardware wallet. Multi-sig can be learned in a single course. Something the equivalent complexity of a driver's license test could prevent all the cold storage exploits we've seen to date - even globally. Platform operators have a key advantage in detecting and preventing fraud - they know their customers far better than any custodian ever would. The best job that custodians can do is to find high integrity individuals and train them to form even better wallet signatories. Rather than mandating that all platforms expose themselves to arbitrary third party risks, regulations should center around ensuring that all signatories are background-checked, properly trained, and using proper procedures. We also need to make sure that signatories are empowered with rights and responsibilities to reject and report fraud. They need to know that they can safely challenge and delay a transaction - even if it turns out they made a mistake. We need to have an environment where mistakes are brought to the surface and dealt with. Not one where firms and people feel the need to hide what happened. In addition to a knowledge-based test, an auditor can privately interview each signatory to make sure they're not in coercive situations, and we should make sure they can freely and anonymously report any issues without threat of retaliation. A proper multi-sig has each signature held by a separate person and is governed by policies and mutual decisions instead of a hierarchy. It includes at least one redundant signature. For best results, 3of4, 3of5, 3of6, 4of5, 4of6, 4of7, 5of6, or 5of7. History has demonstrated over and over again the risk of hot wallets even to highly credible organizations. Nonetheless, many platforms have hot wallets for convenience. While such losses are generally compensated by platforms without issue (for example Poloniex, Bitstamp, Bitfinex, Gatecoin, Coincheck, Bithumb, Zaif, CoinBene, Binance, Bitrue, Bitpoint, Upbit, VinDAX, and now KuCoin), the public tends to focus more on cases that didn't end well. Regardless of what systems are employed, there is always some level of risk. For that reason, most members of the public would prefer to see third party insurance. Rather than trying to convince third party profit-seekers to provide comprehensive insurance and then relying on an expensive and slow legal system to enforce against whatever legal loopholes they manage to find each and every time something goes wrong, insurance could be run through multiple exchange operators and regulators, with the shared interest of having a reputable industry, keeping costs down, and taking care of Canadians. For example, a 4 of 7 multi-sig insurance fund held between 5 independent exchange operators and 2 regulatory bodies. All Canadian exchanges could pay premiums at a set rate based on their needed coverage, with a higher price paid for hot wallet coverage (anything not an air-gapped multi-sig cold wallet). Such a model would be much cheaper to manage, offer better coverage, and be much more reliable to payout when needed. The kind of coverage you could have under this model is unheard of. You could even create something like the CDIC to protect Canadians who get their trading accounts hacked if they can sufficiently prove the loss is legitimate. In cases of fraud, gross negligence, or insolvency, the fund can be used to pay affected users directly (utilizing the last transparent balance report in the worst case), something which private insurance would never touch. While it's recommended to have official policies for coverage, a model where members vote would fully cover edge cases. (Could be similar to the Supreme Court where justices vote based on case law.) Such a model could fully protect all Canadians across all platforms. You can have a fiat coverage governed by legal agreements, and crypto-asset coverage governed by both multi-sig and legal agreements. It could be practical, affordable, and inclusive. Now, we are at a crossroads. We can happily give up our freedom, our innovation, and our money. We can pay hefty expenses to auditors, lawyers, and regulators year after year (and make no mistake - this cost will grow to many millions or even billions as the industry grows - and it will be borne by all Canadians on every platform because platforms are not going to eat up these costs at a loss). We can make it nearly impossible for any new platform to enter the marketplace, forcing Canadians to use the same stagnant platforms year after year. We can centralize and consolidate the entire industry into 2 or 3 big players and have everyone else fail (possibly to heavy losses of users of those platforms). And when a flawed security model doesn't work and gets breached, we can make it even more complicated with even more people in suits making big money doing the job that blockchain was supposed to do in the first place. We can build a system which is so intertwined and dependent on big government, traditional finance, and central bankers that it's future depends entirely on that of the fiat system, of fractional banking, and of government bail-outs. If we choose this path, as history has shown us over and over again, we can not go back, save for revolution. Our children and grandchildren will still be paying the consequences of what we decided today. Or, we can find solutions that work. We can maintain an open and innovative environment while making the adjustments we need to make to fully protect Canadian investors and cryptocurrency users, giving easy and affordable access to cryptocurrency for all Canadians on the platform of their choice, and creating an environment in which entrepreneurs and problem solvers can bring those solutions forward easily. None of the above precludes innovation in any way, or adds any unreasonable cost - and these three policies would demonstrably eliminate or resolve all 109 historic cases as studied here - that's every single case researched so far going back to 2011. It includes every loss that was studied so far not just in Canada but globally as well. Unfortunately, finding answers is the least challenging part. Far more challenging is to get platform operators and regulators to agree on anything. My last post got no response whatsoever, and while the OSC has told me they're happy for industry feedback, I believe my opinion alone is fairly meaningless. This takes the whole community working together to solve. So please let me know your thoughts. Please take the time to upvote and share this with people. Please - let's get this solved and not leave it up to other people to do. Facts/background/sources (skip if you like):
The inspiration for the paragraph about splitting wallets was an actual quote from a Canadian company providing custodial services in response to the OSC consultation paper: "We believe that it will be in the in best interests of investors to prohibit pooled crypto assets or ‘floats’. Most Platforms pool assets, citing reasons of practicality and expense. The recent hack of the world’s largest Platform – Binance – demonstrates the vulnerability of participants’ assets when such concessions are made. In this instance, the Platform’s entire hot wallet of Bitcoins, worth over $40 million, was stolen, facilitated in part by the pooling of client crypto assets." "the maintenance of participants (and Platform) crypto assets across multiple wallets distributes the related risk and responsibility of security - reducing the amount of insurance coverage required and making insurance coverage more readily obtainable". For the record, their reply also said nothing whatsoever about multi-sig or offline storage.
In addition to the fact that the $40m hack represented only one "hot wallet" of Binance, and they actually had the vast majority of assets in other wallets (including mostly cold wallets), multiple real cases have clearly demonstrated that risk is still present with multiple wallets. Bitfinex, VinDAX, Bithumb, Altsbit, BitPoint, Cryptopia, and just recently KuCoin all had multiple wallets breached all at the same time, and may represent a significantly larger impact on customers than the Binance breach which was fully covered by Binance. To represent that simply having multiple separate wallets under the same security scheme is a comprehensive way to reduce risk is just not true.
Private insurance has historically never covered a single loss in the cryptocurrency space (at least, not one that I was able to find), and there are notable cases where massive losses were not covered by insurance. Bitpay in 2015 and Yapizon in 2017 both had insurance policies that didn't pay out during the breach, even after a lengthly court process. The same insurance that ShakePay is presently using (and announced to much fanfare) was describe by their CEO himself as covering “physical theft of the media where the private keys are held,” which is something that has never historically happened. As was said with regard to the same policy in 2018 - “I don’t find it surprising that Lloyd’s is in this space,” said Johnson, adding that to his mind the challenge for everybody is figuring out how to structure these policies so that they are actually protective. “You can create an insurance policy that protects no one – you know there are so many caveats to the policy that it’s not super protective.”
The most profitable policy for a private insurance company is one with the most expensive premiums that they never have to pay a claim on. They have no inherent incentive to take care of people who lost funds. It's "cheaper" to take the reputational hit and fight the claim in court. The more money at stake, the more the insurance provider is incentivized to avoid payout. They're not going to insure the assets unless they have reasonable certainty to make a profit by doing so, and they're not going to pay out a massive sum unless it's legally forced. Private insurance is always structured to be maximally profitable to the insurance provider.
The circumvention of multi-sig was a key factor in the massive Bitfinex hack of over $60m of bitcoin, which today still sits being slowly used and is worth over $3b. While Bitfinex used a qualified custodian Bitgo, which was and still is active and one of the industry leaders of custodians, and they set up 2 of 3 multi-sig wallets, the entire system was routed through Bitfinex, such that Bitfinex customers could initiate the withdrawals in a "hot" fashion. This feature was also a hit with the hacker. The multi-sig was fully circumvented.
Bitpay in 2015 was another example of a breach that stole 5,000 bitcoins. This happened not through the exploit of any system in Bitpay, but because the CEO of a company they worked with got their computer hacked and the hackers were able to request multiple bitcoin purchases, which Bitpay honoured because they came from the customer's computer legitimately. Impersonation is a very common tactic used by fraudsters, and methods get more extreme all the time.
A notable case in Canada was the Canadian Bitcoins exploit. Funds were stored on a server in a Rogers Data Center, and the attendee was successfully convinced to reboot the server "in safe mode" with a simple phone call, thus bypassing the extensive security and enabling the theft.
The very nature of custodians circumvents multi-sig. This is because custodians are not just having to secure the assets against some sort of physical breach but against any form of social engineering, modification of orders, fraudulent withdrawal attempts, etc... If the security practices of signatories in a multi-sig arrangement are such that the breach risk of one signatory is 1 in 100, the requirement of 3 independent signatures makes the risk of theft 1 in 1,000,000. Since hackers tend to exploit the weakest link, a comparable custodian has to make the entry and exit points of their platform 10,000 times more secure than one of those signatories to provide equivalent protection. And if the signatories beef up their security by only 10x, the risk is now 1 in 1,000,000,000. The custodian has to be 1,000,000 times more secure. The larger and more complex a system is, the more potential vulnerabilities exist in it, and the fewer people can understand how the system works when performing upgrades. Even if a system is completely secure today, one has to also consider how that system might evolve over time or work with different members.
By contrast, offline multi-signature solutions have an extremely solid record, and in the entire history of cryptocurrency exchange incidents which I've studied (listed here), there has only been one incident (796 exchange in 2015) involving an offline multi-signature wallet. It happened because the customer's bitcoin address was modified by hackers, and the amount that was stolen ($230k) was immediately covered by the exchange operators. Basically, the platform operators were tricked into sending a legitimate withdrawal request to the wrong address because hackers exploited their platform to change that address. Such an issue would not be prevented in any way by the use of a custodian, as that custodian has no oversight whatsoever to the exchange platform. It's practical for all exchange operators to test large withdrawal transactions as a general policy, regardless of what model is used, and general best practice is to diagnose and fix such an exploit as soon as it occurs.
False promises on the backing of funds played a huge role in the downfall of Quadriga, and it's been exposed over and over again (MyCoin, PlusToken, Bitsane, Bitmarket, EZBTC, IDAX). Even today, customers have extremely limited certainty on whether their funds in exchanges are actually being backed or how they're being backed. While this issue is not unique to cryptocurrency exchanges, the complexity of the technology and the lack of any regulation or standards makes problems more widespread, and there is no "central bank" to come to the rescue as in the 2008 financial crisis or during the great depression when "9,000 banks failed".
In addition to fraudulent operations, the industry is full of cases where operators have suffered breaches and not reported them. Most recently, Einstein was the largest case in Canada, where ongoing breaches and fraud were perpetrated against the platform for multiple years and nobody found out until the platform collapsed completely. While fraud and breaches suck to deal with, they suck even more when not dealt with. Lack of visibility played a role in the largest downfalls of Mt. Gox, Cryptsy, and Bitgrail. In some cases, platforms are alleged to have suffered a hack and keep operating without admitting it at all, such as CoinBene.
It surprises some to learn that a cryptographic solution has already existed since 2013, and gained widespread support in 2014 after Mt. Gox. Proof of Reserves is a full cryptographic proof that allows any customer using an exchange to have complete certainty that their crypto-assets are fully backed by the platform in real-time. This is accomplished by proving that assets exist on the blockchain, are spendable, and fully cover customer deposits. It does not prove safety of assets or backing of fiat assets.
If we didn't care about privacy at all, a platform could publish their wallet addresses, sign a partial transaction, and put the full list of customer information and balances out publicly. Customers can each check that they are on the list, that the balances are accurate, that the total adds up, and that it's backed and spendable on the blockchain. Platforms who exclude any customer take a risk because that customer can easily check and see they were excluded. So together with all customers checking, this forms a full proof of backing of all crypto assets.
However, obviously customers care about their private information being published. Therefore, a hash of the information can be provided instead. Hash is one-way encryption. The hash allows the customer to validate inclusion (by hashing their own known information), while anyone looking at the list of hashes cannot determine the private information of any other user. All other parts of the scheme remain fully intact. A model like this is in use on the exchange CoinFloor in the UK.
A Merkle tree can provide even greater privacy. Instead of a list of balances, the balances are arranged into a binary tree. A customer starts from their node, and works their way to the top of the tree. For example, they know they have 5 BTC, they plus 1 other customer hold 7 BTC, they plus 2-3 other customers hold 17 BTC, etc... until they reach the root where all the BTC are represented. Thus, there is no way to find the balances of other individual customers aside from one unidentified customer in this case.
Proposals such as this had the backing of leaders in the community including Nic Carter, Greg Maxwell, and Zak Wilcox. Substantial and significant effort started back in 2013, with massive popularity in 2014. But what became of that effort? Very little. Exchange operators continue to refuse to give visibility. Despite the fact this information can often be obtained through trivial blockchain analysis, no Canadian platform has ever provided any wallet addresses publicly. As described by the CEO of Newton "For us to implement some kind of realtime Proof of Reserves solution, which I'm not opposed to, it would have to ... Preserve our users' privacy, as well as our own. Some kind of zero-knowledge proof". Kraken describes here in more detail why they haven't implemented such a scheme. According to professor Eli Ben-Sasson, when he spoke with exchanges, none were interested in implementing Proof of Reserves.
And yet, Kraken's places their reasoning on a page called "Proof of Reserves". More recently, both BitBuy and ShakePay have released reports titled "Proof of Reserves and Security Audit". Both reports contain disclaimers against being audits. Both reports trust the customer list provided by the platform, leaving the open possibility that multiple large accounts could have been excluded from the process. Proof of Reserves is a blockchain validation where customers see the wallets on the blockchain. The report from Kraken is 5 years old, but they leave it described as though it was just done a few weeks ago. And look at what they expect customers to do for validation. When firms represent something being "Proof of Reserve" when it's not, this is like a farmer growing fruit with pesticides and selling it in a farmers market as organic produce - except that these are people's hard-earned life savings at risk here. Platforms are misrepresenting the level of visibility in place and deceiving the public by their misuse of this term. They haven't proven anything.
Fraud isn't a problem that is unique to cryptocurrency. Fraud happens all the time. Enron, WorldCom, Nortel, Bear Stearns, Wells Fargo, Moser Baer, Wirecard, Bre-X, and Nicola are just some of the cases where frauds became large enough to become a big deal (and there are so many countless others). These all happened on 100% reversible assets despite regulations being in place. In many of these cases, the problems happened due to the over-complexity of the financial instruments. For example, Enron had "complex financial statements [which] were confusing to shareholders and analysts", creating "off-balance-sheet vehicles, complex financing structures, and deals so bewildering that few people could understand them". In cryptocurrency, we are often combining complex financial products with complex technologies and verification processes. We are naïve if we think problems like this won't happen. It is awkward and uncomfortable for many people to admit that they don't know how something works. If we want "money of the people" to work, the solutions have to be simple enough that "the people" can understand them, not so confusing that financial professionals and technology experts struggle to use or understand them.
For those who question the extent to which an organization can fool their way into a security consultancy role, HB Gary should be a great example to look at. Prior to trying to out anonymous, HB Gary was being actively hired by multiple US government agencies and others in the private sector (with glowing testimonials). The published articles and hosted professional security conferences. One should also look at this list of data breaches from the past 2 years. Many of them are large corporations, government entities, and technology companies. These are the ones we know about. Undoubtedly, there are many more that we do not know about. If HB Gary hadn't been "outted" by anonymous, would we have known they were insecure? If the same breach had happened outside of the public spotlight, would it even have been reported? Or would HB Gary have just deleted the Twitter posts, brought their site back up, done a couple patches, and kept on operating as though nothing had happened?
In the case of Quadriga, the facts are clear. Despite past experience with platforms such as MapleChange in Canada and others around the world, no guidance or even the most basic of a framework was put in place by regulators. By not clarifying any sort of legal framework, regulators enabled a situation where a platform could be run by former criminal Mike Dhanini/Omar Patryn, and where funds could be held fully unchecked by one person. At the same time, the lack of regulation deterred legitimate entities from running competing platforms and Quadriga was granted a money services business license for multiple years of operation, which gave the firm the appearance of legitimacy. Regulators did little to protect Canadians despite Quadriga failing to file taxes from 2016 onward. The entire administrative team had resigned and this was public knowledge. Many people had suspicions of what was going on, including Ryan Mueller, who forwarded complaints to the authorities. These were ignored, giving Gerald Cotten the opportunity to escape without justice.
There are multiple issues with the SOC II model including the prohibitive cost (you have to find a third party accounting firm and the prices are not even listed publicly on any sites), the requirement of operating for a year (impossible for new platforms), and lack of any public visibility (SOC II are private reports that aren't shared outside the people in suits).
Securities frameworks are expensive. Sarbanes-Oxley is estimated to cost $5.1 million USD/yr for the average Fortune 500 company in the United States. Since "Fortune 500" represents the top 500 companies, that means well over $2.55 billion USD (~$3.4 billion CAD) is going to people in suits. Isn't the problem of trust and verification the exact problem that the blockchain is supposed to solve?
To use Quadriga as justification for why custodians or SOC II or other advanced schemes are needed for platforms is rather silly, when any framework or visibility at all, or even the most basic of storage policies, would have prevented the whole thing. It's just an embarrassment.
We are now seeing regulators take strong action. CoinSquare in Canada with multi-million dollar fines. BitMex from the US, criminal charges and arrests. OkEx, with full disregard of withdrawals and no communication. Who's next?
We have a unique window today where we can solve these problems, and not permanently destroy innovation with unreasonable expectations, but we need to act quickly. This is a unique historic time that will never come again.
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